Abstract
An important issue when large-scale mathematical models are used to support decision makers is their reliability. Sensitivity analysis has a crucial role during the process of validating computational models to ensure their accuracy and reliability. The focus of the present work is to perform global sensitivity analysis of a large-scale mathematical model describing remote transport of air pollutants. The plain Monte Carlo approach using the well-known van der Corput sequence with various bases (\(b=3, 5, 6, 10\)) has been applied for multidimensional integration to provide sensitivity studies under consideration. Sensitivity studies of the model output were performed into two directions: the sensitivity of the ammonia mean monthly concentrations with respect to the anthropogenic emissions variation, and the sensitivity of the ozone concentration values with respect to the rate variation of several chemical reactions. The numerical results show that the increase of the base leads to a higher accuracy of the estimated quantities in the most of the case studies, but the results are comparable with the results achieved using the standard van der Corput sequence with base 2.
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Acknowledgment
Venelin Todorov is supported by the Bulgarian National Science Fund under the Project KP-06-N52/5 “Efficient methods for modeling, optimization and decision making” and Project KP-06-N52/2 “Perspective Methods for Quality Prediction in the Next Generation Smart Informational Service Networks”. Stoyan Apostolov is supported by the Bulgarian National Science Fund under Project KP-06-M32/2 - 17.12.2019 “Advanced Stochastic and Deterministic Approaches for Large-Scale Problems of Computational Mathematics”. The work is also supported by the NSP “ICT in SES”, contract No DO1-205/23.11.2018, financed by the Ministry of EU in Bulgaria and by the BNSF under Project KP-06-Russia/17 “New Highly Efficient Stochastic Simulation Methods and Applications” and Project DN 12/4-2017 “Advanced Analytical and Numerical Methods for Nonlinear Differential Equations with Applications in Finance and Environmental Pollution”.
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Todorov, V., Dimov, I., Georgieva, R., Ostromsky, T., Zlatev, Z., Poryazov, S. (2022). Multidimensional Sensitivity Analysis of an Air Pollution Model Based on Modifications of the van der Corput Sequence. In: Lirkov, I., Margenov, S. (eds) Large-Scale Scientific Computing. LSSC 2021. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 13127. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-97549-4_21
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