Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Fast Payment Systems Dynamics: Lessons from Diffusion of Innovation Models

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Business Information Systems Workshops (BIS 2021)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing ((LNBIP,volume 444))

Included in the following conference series:

Abstract

The paper applies innovation dynamics equations to analyze audience dynamics of instant payment systems (IPS) behavior. The research shows that dynamics of IPS are well described by the Ricatti equations, which are generalizations of the Bass basic model of innovation diffusion taking into account different patterns of audience behavior. As proved by IPS experience in Britain, Sweden and other countries, commodification of fast payment services allows for rigorous description of the IPS dynamics. Quantitative estimates are obtained for the degree of cooperative customer behavior and the typical time of system growth. However, these parameters may differ for different transactions types within the same system due to their different business nature. We also show that all systems may be described by the generalized trajectory of evolution and demonstrate that described systems with different payment operations types are located on different stages of this trajectory what reflects their maturity and operation nature. The results can be used for qualitative and quantitative assessment of IPS customers behavior and for short- and medium-term projections. We also discuss some future improvements such as including of competition of different IPSs for countries in which more than one IPS run simultaneously.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 59.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 74.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Brett King: Bank 4.0: Banking Everywhere, Never at a Bank. Marshall Cavendish Business, Singapore (2018)

    Google Scholar 

  2. Dostov, V., Shoust, P., Popova, E.: Using mathematical models to describe the dynamics of the spread of traditional and cryptocurrency payment systems. In: Misra, S., et al. (eds.) ICCSA 2019. LNCS, vol. 11620, pp. 457–471. Springer, Cham (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-24296-1_36

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  3. Dostov, V., Shust, P., Popova, E.: Using mathematical models for analysis and prediction of payment systems behavior. In: 34th International Business Information Management Association Conference (IBIMA), Madrid, Spain, 13–14 November 2019, pp. 2284–2895. IBIMA Publishing, King of Prussia, PA (2019)

    Google Scholar 

  4. Dostov, V., Shust, P., Krivoruchko, S.: Using mathematical models for analysis and prediction of payment systems behavior. Paper presented at fifth international congress on information & communication technology (ICICT 2020), London, UK, 20–21 February 2020 (2020)

    Google Scholar 

  5. Dostov, V., Shust, P.: A generalization of Bass equation for description of diffusion of cryptocurrencies and other payment methods and some metrics for cooperation on market. In: Gervasi, O., et al. (eds.) ICCSA 2020. LNCS, vol. 12251, pp. 3–13. Springer, Cham (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-58808-3_1

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  6. The Bass Model. Bass’s Basement Research Institute. http://bassbasement.org/BassModel/Default.aspx

  7. Bank for International Settlements: Fast payments – enhancing the speed and availability of retail payments (2016). https://www.bis.org/cpmi/publ/d154.pdf

  8. Bank for International Settlements: Shaping the future of payments. https://www.bis.org/statistics/payment_stats/commentary1911.htm

  9. Bass, Frank M.: A dynamic model of market share and sales behavior. In: Proceedings, Winter Conference American Marketing Association, Chicago, IL (1963)

    Google Scholar 

  10. Bass, F.M.: A new product growth model for consumer durables. Manag. Sci. 15 (1969)

    Google Scholar 

  11. Baran, M.: Diffusion of innovations in the systems thinking approach. Manag. Bus. Innov. 6, 16–24 (2010)

    Google Scholar 

  12. Ganjeizadeh, F., Lei, H., Goraya, P., Olivar, E.: Applying looks-like analysis and bass diffusion model techniques to forecast a neurostimulator device with no historical data. In: 27th International Conference on Flexible Automation and Intelligent Manufacturing, FAIM, Modena, Italy, pp. 1916–1924 (2017). Procedia Manufacturing

    Google Scholar 

  13. Soffer, T., Nachmias, R., Ram, J.: Diffusion of web supported instruction in higher education: the case of Tel-Aviv University. Educ. Technol. Soc. 13(3), 212–223 (2010)

    Google Scholar 

  14. Boyle, A.: Some forecasts of the diffusion of e-assessment using a model. Innov. J. Public Sector Innov. Journal 15(1), 1–30 (2010)

    Google Scholar 

  15. Dostov, V.L., Shust, P.M.: Evolution of the electronic payments industry: problems of quality transition. Report for Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (2017)

    Google Scholar 

  16. Takako, F.-G.: Non-Cooperative Game Theory. Springer, Heidelberg (2015).https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-55645-9

  17. Simmons, G., Robertson, J.: Differential Equations with Applications and Historical Notes, 2nd edn. International Series in Pure and Applied Mathematics. McGraw-Hill (1991)

    Google Scholar 

  18. Average value of retail transactions made by credit and charge card in the United Kingdom (UK) from 2009 to 2016 (2020). https://www.statista.com/statistics/310640/average-credit-card-retail-transaction-value-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/

  19. UK Credit Card Data & Statistics (2020). https://www.merchantsavvy.co.uk/uk-credit-card-statistics/

  20. The average “Mir” card payment receipt has decreased. Klerk (2017). https://www.klerk.ru/bank/news/465742/

  21. Trefilov, V.: The average receipt for VISA card transactions in Russia decreased by 5% over the year. Izvestiia (2019). https://iz.ru/856773/2019-03-15/srednii-chek-po-operatciiam-po-kartam-visa-v-rossii-snizilsia-na-5-za-god

  22. Dodge, Y., Jureckova, J.: Adaptive Regression. Springer, New York (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-8766-2

  23. Shao, J.: Mathematical Statistics. Springer, New York (2003). https://doi.org/10.1007/b97553

  24. Number of downloads of the Swish app in Sweden from January 2019 to January 2020 (2020). https://www.statista.com/statistics/1098036/monthly-swish-app-downloads-in-sweden/

  25. Interesting Venmo Statistics and Facts (2020). https://expandedramblings.com/index.php/venmo-statistics-facts

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Distributed Ledger Technologies of Saint-Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg, Russia

    Victor Dostov & Pavel Shust

  2. Saint-Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg, Russia

    Victor Dostov & Pavel Shust

  3. Russian Electronic Money and Remittance Association, Moscow, Russia

    Victor Dostov & Pavel Shust

  4. Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia

    Svetlana Krivoruchko

Authors
  1. Victor Dostov
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Pavel Shust
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Svetlana Krivoruchko
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Victor Dostov .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Poznań University of Economics and Business, Poznan, Poland

    Witold Abramowicz

  2. TIB Leibniz Information Center Science and Technology and University of Hannover, Hannover, Germany

    Sören Auer

  3. Poznań University of Economics and Business, Poznan, Poland

    Milena Stróżyna

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2022 Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Dostov, V., Shust, P., Krivoruchko, S. (2022). Fast Payment Systems Dynamics: Lessons from Diffusion of Innovation Models. In: Abramowicz, W., Auer, S., Stróżyna, M. (eds) Business Information Systems Workshops. BIS 2021. Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing, vol 444. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-04216-4_31

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-04216-4_31

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-031-04215-7

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-031-04216-4

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation