Skip to main content

How to Predict Patient Arrival in the Emergency Room

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Information Systems and Technologies (WorldCIST 2022)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems ((LNNS,volume 468))

Included in the following conference series:

Abstract

The emergency services of the hospitals are for the most part suffering, facing a constant increase in the number of patients without the financial means to follow. Part of the answer to this worrying situation lies in the optimization of existing resources, for which artificial intelligence techniques are proving promising. In this article, we evaluate this possibility in a concrete way, starting from real data and applying a comparative analysis of 4 state-of-the-art algorithms. An original way of selecting explanatory variables is applied, and also the hyperparameters of the algorithms are chosen with precision. The results show that the most powerful machine learning algorithms currently available are quite capable of making good predictions of the number of patients arriving at the emergency room, provided that they are well applied.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 229.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 299.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. DREES. La médecine d’urgence (2018, 2020)

    Google Scholar 

  2. Kellermann, A.L.: Crisis in the emergency department. N. Engl. J. Med. 335, 1300–1303 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Pines, J.M., Griffey, R.T.: What we have learned from a decade of ED crowding research. Acad. Emerg. Med. 22(8), 985–987 (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  4. Hoot, N.R., Nathan, R., Aronsky, D.: Systematic review of emergency department crowding: causes, effects, and solutions. Ann. Emerg. Med. 52, 126–136 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Kulstad, E.B., Sikka, R., Sweis, R.T., Kelley, K.M., Rzechula, K.H.: ED overcrowding is associated with an increased frequency of medication errors. Am. J. Emerg. Med. 28, 304–9 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Kadri, F., Chaabane, S., Tahon, S.: Service d’urgences hospitalières: situations de tension et résilience (2013, 2020)

    Google Scholar 

  7. Himmich, S., et al.: Modélisation et facteurs influençant le flux quotidien des patients aux urgences. Revue d’Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique. 57, 31 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Bergs, J., Heerinckx, P., Verelst, S.: Knowing what to expect, forecasting monthly emergency department visits: a time-series analysis. Int. Emerg. Nurs. 22, 112–115 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Jones, S.S., Thomas, A., Evans, R.S., Welch, S.J., Haug, P.J., Snow, G.L.: Forecasting daily patient volumes in the emergency department. Acad. Emerg. Med. 15, 159–70 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Røislien, J., Søvik, S., Eken, T.: Seasonality in trauma admissions - are daylight and weather variables better predictors than general cyclic effects? PLOS ONE 13(2), e0192568 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Rauch, J., Hübner, U., Denter, M., Babitsch, B.: Improving the prediction of emergency department crowding: a time series analysis including road traffic flow. Stud. Health Technol. Inform. 260, 57–64 (2019)

    Google Scholar 

  12. http://WWW.meteofrance.fr

  13. https://www.bison-fute.gouv.fr/

  14. https://www.sentiweb.fr/

  15. https://rhodesmill.org/skyfield/

  16. Chen, T., Guestrin, C.: XGBoost: a scalable tree boosting system. In Proceedings of the 22nd ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, pp. 785–794. New York, NY, USA. ACM (2016). https://doi.org/10.1145/2939672.2939785

  17. Ke, G., et al.: LightGBM: a highly efficient gradient boosting decision tree. In: Proceedings of the 31st International Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS’17). Curran Associates Inc., Red Hook, NY, USA, PP. 3149–3157 (2017)

    Google Scholar 

  18. Breiman, L.: Bagging predictors. Mach. Learn. 24(2), 123–140 (1996)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  19. Friedman, J., Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R.: Regularization path for generalized linear models by coordinate descent. J. Stat. Softw. 33(1), 1–22 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Pedregosa, F., et al.: Scikit-learn: machine learning in Python. JMLR 12, 2825–2830 (2011)

    MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  21. Micci-Barreca, D.: A preprocessing scheme for high-cardinality categorical attributes in classification and prediction problems. SIGKDD Explor. Newsl. 3(1), 27–32 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1145/507533.507538

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Simm, J., de Abril, I., Sugiyama, M.: Tree-based ensemble multi-task learning method for classification and regression. IEICE Trans. Inf. Syst. 97(6), 1677–1681 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Fuller, W.A.: Introduction to Statistical Time Series. Wiley, New York (1976). ISBN 0-471-28715-6

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowlegement

This research work has been supported by the CHU of Besançon, France.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Christophe Guyeux .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2022 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Guyeux, C., Bahi, J.M. (2022). How to Predict Patient Arrival in the Emergency Room. In: Rocha, A., Adeli, H., Dzemyda, G., Moreira, F. (eds) Information Systems and Technologies. WorldCIST 2022. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol 468. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-04826-5_59

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics