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Plausible 6G Futures: Scenarios for the Future MNO Business Environment in the 6G Era

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Knowledge Management in Organisations (KMO 2022)

Part of the book series: Communications in Computer and Information Science ((CCIS,volume 1593))

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Abstract

The paper explores plausible scenarios for the business environment of mobile network operators (MNOs) after the eventual rollout of 6G. The 6G era is characterized by multi-dimensional uncertainty, as neither the technology nor the business landscape is yet in place. However, futures research methods and scenarios help alleviate uncertainty and provide futures knowledge about plausible developments. Using environmental scanning and expert interviews, the paper presents four scenarios for MNOs based on the assumed rate of change for the sector (transformative vs. conservative) and the market success of the incumbents (continued rise vs. fall). Underneath the scenarios is a shared base of assumptions for which the experts converged; these assumptions of changing market configurations provide a useful synopsis of current expert consensus for 6G business futures.

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Acknowledgements

This study has received financial support from the Strategic Research Council at the Academy of Finland [grant nos. 335980, 335989]. Professor, Dr. Jari Kaivo-oja gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Research Council of Lithuania (LMTLT) and the European Regional Development Fund implementing the project “Platforms of Big Data Foresight (PLATBIDAFO)” (project No. 01.2.2-LMT-K-718-02-0019).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics, University of Turku, Turku, Finland

    Yukie Ikezumi, Mikkel Stein Knudsen & Jari Kaivo-oja

  2. Kazimieras Simonavičius University, Vilnius, Lithuania

    Jari Kaivo-oja

Authors
  1. Yukie Ikezumi
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  2. Mikkel Stein Knudsen
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  3. Jari Kaivo-oja
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Mikkel Stein Knudsen .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Staffordshire University, Stoke-on-Trent, UK

    Lorna Uden

  2. University of Kaohsiung, Kaohsiung, Taiwan

    I-Hsien Ting

  3. FernUniversität in Hagen, Hagen, Germany

    Birgit Feldmann

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Ikezumi, Y., Knudsen, M.S., Kaivo-oja, J. (2022). Plausible 6G Futures: Scenarios for the Future MNO Business Environment in the 6G Era. In: Uden, L., Ting, IH., Feldmann, B. (eds) Knowledge Management in Organisations. KMO 2022. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 1593. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-07920-7_26

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-07920-7_26

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-031-07919-1

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-031-07920-7

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

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