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Why People Tend to Overestimate Joint Probabilities

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Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems (IPMU 2022)

Part of the book series: Communications in Computer and Information Science ((CCIS,volume 1601))

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Abstract

It is known that, in general, people overestimate the probabilities of joint events. In this paper, we provide an explanation for this phenomenon – an explanation based on Laplace Indeterminacy Principle and Maximum Entropy approach.

This work was supported in part by the National Science Foundation grants 1623190 (A Model of Change for Preparing a New Generation for Professional Practice in Computer Science), and HRD-1834620 and HRD-2034030 (CAHSI Includes), and by the AT&T Fellowship in Information Technology.

It was also supported by the program of the development of the Scientific-Educational Mathematical Center of Volga Federal District No. 075-02-2020-1478, and by a grant from the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Office (NRDI).

The authors are thankful to the anonymous referees for valuable suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX, 79968, USA

    Olga Kosheleva & Vladik Kreinovich

Authors
  1. Olga Kosheleva
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  2. Vladik Kreinovich
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Vladik Kreinovich .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. University of Milano-Bicocca, Milan, Italy

    Davide Ciucci

  2. University of Oviedo, Oviedo, Spain

    Inés Couso

  3. University of Cádiz, Cádiz, Spain

    Jesús Medina

  4. University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland

    Dominik Ślęzak

  5. University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy

    Davide Petturiti

  6. Sorbonne Université, Paris, France

    Bernadette Bouchon-Meunier

  7. Iona College, New Rochelle, NY, USA

    Ronald R. Yager

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Kosheleva, O., Kreinovich, V. (2022). Why People Tend to Overestimate Joint Probabilities. In: Ciucci, D., et al. Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems. IPMU 2022. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 1601. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-08971-8_40

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-08971-8_40

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-031-08970-1

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-031-08971-8

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