Abstract
In manufacturing processes, root cause analysis of tools’ failures is crucial to determine the system reliability and to derive cost minimizing strategies. Condition-based maintenance (CBM) is one of the relevant policies to reduce costs of tools usage subjected to degradation processes. In a previous work, the authors introduced a new statistical methodology entitled Generalized Fault Tree (GFT) analysis that demonstrated good results for reliability analysis and root cause analysis. In this work, we propose a new dynamic CBM methodology, through real-time failure forecasting of the replacement instant of friction welding tools at a Bosch TermoTechnology facility, based on the dynamic update of the GFT root probability. The GFT structure is described by data-driven basic events (BEs), obtained from an embedded accelerometer, and the tree that best describes the tools’ failures is obtained through a new training process that employs a pruning technique to reduce computational complexity. The results show that we can reduce at least 12% of the costs per welding cycle by applying the GFT approach and CBM, when compared with the current policy of preventive maintenance in (optimized) constant cycles replacement periods.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Aslansefat, K., Latif-Shabgahi, G.R.: A hierarchical approach for dynamic fault trees solution through semi-Markov process. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 69(3), 986–1003 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1109/TR.2019.2923893
Ayvaz, S., Alpay, K.: Predictive maintenance system for production lines in manufacturing: a machine learning approach using IoT data in real-time. Expert Syst. Appl. 173, 114598 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2021.114598
Chiacchio, F., Iacono, A., Compagno, L., D’Urso, D.: A general framework for dependability modelling coupling discrete-event and time-driven simulation. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 199, 106904 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.106904
Coelho, D., Costa, D., Rocha, E.M., Almeida, D., Santos, J.P.: Predictive maintenance on sensorized stamping presses by time series segmentation, anomaly detection, and classification algorithms. Procedia Comput. Sci. 200, 1184–1193 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2022.01.318
Dehnert, C., Junges, S., Katoen, J.P., Volk, M.: The probabilistic model checker storm (extended abstract), October 2016
Dugan, J., Bavuso, S., Boyd, M.: Dynamic fault-tree models for fault-tolerant computer systems. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 41(3), 363–377 (1992). https://doi.org/10.1109/24.159800
Durga Rao, K., Gopika, V., Sanyasi Rao, V.V., Kushwaha, H.S., Verma, A.K., Srividya, A.: Dynamic fault tree analysis using Monte Carlo simulation in probabilistic safety assessment. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 94(4), 872–883 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2008.09.007
Elderhalli, Y., Hasan, O., Tahar, S.: A methodology for the formal verification of dynamic fault trees using HOL theorem proving. IEEE Access 7, 136176–136192 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2019.2942829
Guo, D., Yang, M., Wu, H., Ge, D., Cao, X.: Dynamic reliability evaluation of diesel generator system of one Chinese 1000MWe NPP considering temporal failure effects. Front. Energy Res. 9, 816 (2021). https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2021.793577
Hu, J., Chen, P.: Predictive maintenance of systems subject to hard failure based on proportional hazards model. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 196, 106707 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RESS.2019.106707
Jiang, G.J., Li, Z.Y., Qiao, G., Chen, H.X., Li, H.B., Sun, H.H.: Reliability analysis of dynamic fault tree based on binary decision diagrams for explosive vehicle. Math. Probl. Eng. 2021, 1–13 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/5559475
Kabir, S.: An overview of fault tree analysis and its application in model based dependability analysis. Expert Syst. Appl. 77, 114–135 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2017.01.058
Kabir, S., Walker, M., Papadopoulos, Y.: Dynamic system safety analysis in HiP-HOPS with Petri Nets and Bayesian Networks. Saf. Sci. 105, 55–70 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2018.02.001
Kaiser, K.A., Gebraeel, N.Z.: Sensor-based degradation models. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. 39(4), 840–849 (2009)
Khakzad, N., Khan, F., Amyotte, P.: Risk-based design of process systems using discrete-time Bayesian networks. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 109, 5–17 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2012.07.009
Kohonen, T.: The self-organizing map. Proc. IEEE 78(9), 1464–1480 (1990). https://doi.org/10.1109/5.58325
Lee, J., Kao, H.A., Yang, S.: Service innovation and smart analytics for Industry 4.0 and big data environment. Procedia CIRP 16, 3–8 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procir.2014.02.001
Leevy, J.L., Khoshgoftaar, T.M., Bauder, R.A., Seliya, N.: Investigating the relationship between time and predictive model maintenance. J. Big Data 7(1), 1–19 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40537-020-00312-x
Lei, Y., Li, N., Gontarz, S., Lin, J., Radkowski, S., Dybala, J.: A model-based method for remaining useful life prediction of machinery. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 65(3), 1314–1326 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1109/TR.2016.2570568
Li, N., Lei, Y., Yan, T., Li, N., Han, T.: A wiener-process-model-based method for remaining useful life prediction considering unit-to-unit variability. IEEE Trans. Industr. Electron. 66(3), 2092–2101 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1109/TIE.2018.2838078
Liao, L., Jin, W., Pavel, R.: Prognosability regularization for prognostics and health assessment. IEEE Trans. Industr. Electron. 63(11), 7076–7083 (2016)
Merle, G., Roussel, J.M., Lesage, J.J., Bobbio, A.: Probabilistic algebraic analysis of fault trees with priority dynamic gates and repeated events. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 59(1), 250–261 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1109/TR.2009.2035793
Merle, G., et al.: Function to cite this version: HAL Id: hal-00566334 Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis Based on the Structure Function (2011)
Mohd Nizam Ong, N.A.F., Sadiq, M.A., Md Said, M.S., Jomaas, G., Mohd Tohir, M.Z., Kristensen, J.S.: Fault tree analysis of fires on rooftops with photovoltaic systems. J. Build. Eng. 46(2021), 103752 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jobe.2021.103752
Paris, P., Erdogan, F.: A critical analysis of crack propagation laws. J. Basic Eng. 85(4), 528–533 (1963). https://doi.org/10.1115/1.3656900
Rocha, E.M., Nunes, P., Santos, J.: Reliability analysis of sensorized stamping presses by generalized fault trees. In: Proceedings of the International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management Istanbul, Turkey, 7–10 March 2022 (2022)
Ruijters, E., Stoelinga, M.: Fault tree analysis: a survey of the state-of-the-art in modeling, analysis and tools, February 2015. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosrev.2015.03.001
Sihite, J.F., Kohda, T.: Assessing the reliability of power transformer by quantitative fault tree analysis. Adv. Mater. Res. 694(697), 901–906 (2013). https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.694-697.901
Stamatelatos, M., et al.: Fault tree handbook with aerospace applications. Technical report (2002)
Sullivan, K., Dugan, J., Coppit, D.: The Galileo fault tree analysis tool. In: Digest of Papers. Twenty-Ninth Annual International Symposium on Fault-Tolerant Computing (Cat. No. 99CB36352), pp. 232–235, December. IEEE Computer Society (2003). https://doi.org/10.1109/FTCS.1999.781056
Xu, Z., Guo, D., Wang, J., Li, X., Ge, D.: A numerical simulation method for a repairable dynamic fault tree. Eksploatacja i Niezawodnosc 23(1), 34–41 (2021). https://doi.org/10.17531/EIN.2021.1.4
You, M.Y., Liu, F., Wang, W., Meng, G.: Statistically planned and individually improved predictive maintenance management for continuously monitored degrading systems. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 59(4), 744–753 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1109/TR.2010.2085572
Zelenin, A., Kropp, A.: Apache Kafka. In: Apache Kafka, pp. I-XVII. Carl Hanser Verlag GmbH & Co. KG, München, November 2021. https://doi.org/10.3139/9783446470460.fm
Acknowledgments
The present study was partially developed in the scope of the Project Augmented Humanity (PAH) [POCI-01-0247- FEDER-046103], financed by Portugal 2020, under the Competitiveness and Internationalization Operational Program, the Lisbon Regional Operational Program, and by the European Regional Development Fund. The first author has a PhD grant supported FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P. for the PhD grants ref. 2020.06926.BD. The second author was partially supported by the Center for Research and Development in Mathematics and Applications (CIDMA), through the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, reference UIDB/04106/2020. The first and fourth authors would like to acknowledge the University of Aveiro, FCT/MCTES for the financial support of TEMA research unit (FCT Ref. UIDB/00481/2020 & UIDP/00481/2020) and CENTRO01- 0145-FEDER-022083 - Regional Operational Program of the Center (Centro2020), within the scope of the Portugal 2020 Partnership Agreement, through the European Regional Development Fund. The third author was supported by Bosch Termotecnologia, SA.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Ethics declarations
Data Availability Statement
The data sets used in this work are confidential information of Bosch company manufacturing system, so they are not publicly available.
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2022 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Nunes, P., Rocha, E.M., Neves, J., Santos, J. (2022). Real-Time Condition-Based Maintenance of Friction Welding Tools by Generalized Fault Trees. In: Guarda, T., Portela, F., Augusto, M.F. (eds) Advanced Research in Technologies, Information, Innovation and Sustainability. ARTIIS 2022. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 1675. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-20319-0_31
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-20319-0_31
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-031-20318-3
Online ISBN: 978-3-031-20319-0
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)