Skip to main content

Photovoltaic Power Predictor Module Based on Historical Production and Weather Conditions Data

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Applied Computer Sciences in Engineering (WEA 2022)

Abstract

In recent years the demand for electrical energy has increased significantly. Usually, the electrical grid covers this demand. However, this fuel energy is known for its significant carbon footprint. For that reason, different mechanisms to bring cleaner energies have been explored, like hydraulic, wind, thermal, and one of the most popular solar energy. Although solar energy is abundant and environmentally friendly, the photovoltaic energy that comes from the sun, solar production is subject to different external perturbations, such as environmental conditions. Therefore it has been necessary to develop other methods based on statistics, machine learning, or deep learning to make solar forecasting and predict production and weather conditions. Specifically, this work proposes an evaluation of three different deep learning models to predict irradiance, temperature, and production of a photovoltaic system located in the city of Cartagena, Colombia. Those are irradiance and temperature using the historical data on production and weather conditions. This data has been registered on a web platform for seven months, from January 1, 2022, until June 28, 2022.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 79.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 99.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Dincer, F.: The analysis on wind energy electricity generation status, potential and policies in the world. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 15(9), 5135–5142 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Brockway, P.E., Owen, A., Brand-Correa, L.I., Hardt, L.: Estimation of global final-stage energy-return-on-investment for fossil fuels with comparison to renewable energy sources. Nat. Energy 4(7), 612–621 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Aichele, R., Felbermayr, G.: Kyoto and the carbon footprint of nations. J. Environ. Econ. Manag. 63(3), 336–354 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Li, K., Bian, H., Liu, C., Zhang, D., Yang, Y.: Comparison of geothermal with solar and wind power generation systems. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 42, 1464–1474 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Li, G., Li, M., Taylor, R., Hao, Y., Besagni, G., Markides, C.: Solar energy utilisation: current status and roll-out potential. Appl. Thermal Eng. 209, 118285 (2022)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Hafezi, R., Alipour, M.: Renewable energy sources: traditional and modern-age technologies. In: Affordable and Clean Energy, pp. 1085–1099. Springer, Heidelberg (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-95864-4_18

  7. Amant, R.S., Cohen, P.R.: Intelligent support for exploratory data analysis. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 7(4), 545–558 (1998)

    Google Scholar 

  8. Pezeshki, Z., Mazinani, S.M.: Comparison of artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic and neuro fuzzy for predicting optimization of building thermal consumption: a survey. Artif. Intell. Rev. 52(1), 495–525 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Li, R., Wang, H.-N., He, H., Cui, Y.-M., Du, Z.-L.: Support vector machine combined with k-nearest neighbors for solar flare forecasting. Chin. J. Astron. Astrophys. 7(3), 441 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Zhou, Y., Zhou, N., Gong, L., Jiang, M.: Prediction of photovoltaic power output based on similar day analysis, genetic algorithm and extreme learning machine. Energy 204, 117894 (2020)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Hocaoğlu, F.O., Gerek, Ö.N., Kurban, M.: Hourly solar radiation forecasting using optimal coefficient 2-d linear filters and feed-forward neural networks. Solar Energy 82(8), 714–726 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Pang, Z., Niu, F., O’Neill, Z.: Solar radiation prediction using recurrent neural network and artificial neural network: a case study with comparisons. Renew. Energy 156, 279–289 (2020)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Jung, Y., Jung, J., Kim, B., Han, S.: Long short-term memory recurrent neural network for modeling temporal patterns in long-term power forecasting for solar pv facilities: case study of South Korea. J. Cleaner Prod. 250, 119476 (2020)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. de Melo, G.A., Sugimoto, D.N., Tasinaffo, P.M., Santos, A.H.M., Cunha, A.M., Dias, L.A.V.: A new approach to river flow forecasting: LSTM and GRU multivariate models. IEEE Latin Am. Trans. 17(12), 1978–1986 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Gao, B., Huang, X., Shi, J., Tai, Y., Zhang, J.: Hourly forecasting of solar irradiance based on ceemdan and multi-strategy CNN-LSTM neural networks. Renew. Energy 162, 1665–1683 (2020)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Ajith, M., Martínez-Ramón, M.: Deep learning based solar radiation micro forecast by fusion of infrared cloud images and radiation data. Appl. Energy 294, 117014 (2021)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Das, U.K., et al.: Forecasting of photovoltaic power generation and model optimization: a review. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 81, 912–928 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Lin, P., Peng, Z., Lai, Y., Cheng, S., Chen, Z., Wu, L.: Short-term power prediction for photovoltaic power plants using a hybrid improved kmeans-gra-elman model based on multivariate meteorological factors and historical power datasets. Energy Conv. Manag. 177, 704–717 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Wang, H., Lei, Z., Zhang, X., Zhou, B., Peng, J.: A review of deep learning for renewable energy forecasting. Energy Conv. Manag. 198, 111799 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Mellit, A., Pavan, A.M., Ogliari, E., Leva, S., Lughi, V.: Advanced methods for photovoltaic output power forecasting: a review. Appl. Sci. 10(2), 487 (2020)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Li, W., Wu, H., Zhu, N., Jiang, Y., Tan, J., Guo, Y.: Prediction of dissolved oxygen in a fishery pond based on gated recurrent unit (GRU). Inf. Process. Agric. 8(1), 185–193 (2021)

    Google Scholar 

  22. Rajagukguk, R.A., Ramadhan, R.A., Lee, H.-J.: A review on deep learning models for forecasting time series data of solar irradiance and photovoltaic power. Energies 13(24), 6623 (2020)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Yang, T., Zhao, L., Li, W., Zomaya, A.Y.: Reinforcement learning in sustainable energy and electric systems: a survey. Ann. Rev. Control 49, 145–163 (2020)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  24. Liu, Y., et al.: Wind power short-term prediction based on LSTM and discrete wavelet transform. Appl. Sci. 9(6), 1108 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Cho, K., et al.: Learning phrase representations using rnn encoder-decoder for statistical machine translation. arXiv preprint arXiv:1406.1078 (2014)

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Juan C. Martinez-Santos .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2022 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Martinez, E., Cuadrado, J., Martinez-Santos, J.C. (2022). Photovoltaic Power Predictor Module Based on Historical Production and Weather Conditions Data. In: Figueroa-García, J.C., Franco, C., Díaz-Gutierrez, Y., Hernández-Pérez, G. (eds) Applied Computer Sciences in Engineering. WEA 2022. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 1685. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-20611-5_38

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-20611-5_38

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-031-20610-8

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-031-20611-5

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics