Abstract
Extensive dataset availability for neurological disease, such as multiple sclerosis (MS), has led to new methods of risk assessment and disease course prediction, such as using machine learning and other statistical methods. However, many of these methods cannot properly capture complex relationships between variables that affect results of odds ratios unless independence between risk factors is assumed. This work addresses this limitation using a Bayesian network (BN) approach to MS risk assessment that incorporates data from UK Biobank with a counterfactual model, which includes causal knowledge of dependencies between variables. We present the results of more traditional Bayesian measurements such as necessity and sufficiency, along with odds ratios for each of the risk factors in the model. The greatest risk is produced by the genetic factor DRB15 (2.7 OR) but smoking, vitamin D levels, and childhood obesity may also play a role in MS development. Further data collection, especially in infectious mononucleosis in the population, is needed to provide a more accurate measure of risk.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Reich, D., Lucchinetti, C., Calabresi, P.: Multiple sclerosis. N. Engl. J. Med. 378, 169–180 (2018)
G. 2. M. S. Collaborators: Global, regional, and national burden of multiple sclerosis 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet Neurol. 18(3), 269–285 (2019)
Rose, C., Smaili, C., Charpillet, F.: A dynamic Bayesian network for handling uncertainty in a decision support system adapted to the monitoring of patients treated by hemodialysis. In: 17th IEEE International Conference on Tools with Artificial Intelligence (ICTAI 2005) (2005)
Jiang, X., Wells, A., Brufsky, A., Neapolitan, R.: A clinical decision support system learned from data to personalize treatment recommendations towards preventing breast cancer metastasis. Plos One 14(3), 1–18
Fenton, N.E., Neil, M., Osman, M., McLachlan, S.: COVID-19 infection and death rates: the need to incorporate causal explanations for the data and avoid bias in testing. J. Risk Res. 1–4 (2020)
Neves, M.R., et al.: Causal dynamic Bayesian networks for the management of glucose control in gestational diabetes. In: 2021 IEEE 9th International Conference on Healthcare Informatics (ICHI), pp. 31–40 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1109/ICHI52183.2021.00018
Kyrimi, E., Neves, M., Neil, M., Marsh, W., McLachlan, S., Fenton, N.E.: Medical idioms for clinical Bayesian network development. Artif. Intell. Med. (2020)
Hartmann, M., Fenton, N., Dobson, R.: Current review and next steps in artificial intelligence in multiple sclerosis risk research. Comput. Biol. Med. 132 (2021)
RodrÃguez, J., Pérez, A., Arteta, D., Tejedor, D., Lozano, J.: Using multidimensional Bayesian network classifiers to assist the treatment of multiple sclerosis. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. Part C Appl. Rev. 42(6), 1705–1715 (2012)
Pozzi, L., Schmidli, H., Ohlssen, D.I.: A Bayesian hierarchical surrogate outcome model for multiple sclerosis. Pharm. Stat. 15, 341–348 (2016)
Bergamaschi, R., et al.: Immunomodulatory therapies delay disease progression in multiple sclerosis. Mult. Scler. J. 22(13) (2016)
Pearl, J.: Causality, 2nd edn. Cambridge University Press, New York (2009)
VanderWeele, T.J., Robins, J.M.: Directed acyclic graphs, sufficient causes, and the properties of conditioning on a common effect. Am. J. Epidemiol. 166(9) (2007)
Celentano, D.D., Szklo, M.: Gordis Epidemiology, 6th edn. Elsevier, Philadelphia (2019)
Shimonovich, M., Pearce, A., Thomson, H., Keyes, K., Katikireddi, S.V.: Assessing causality in epidemiology: revisiting Bradford Hill to incorporate developments in causal thinking. Eur. J. Epidemiol. 36(9), 873–887 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-020-00703-7
Geneletti, S., Gallo, V., Porta, M., Khoury, M.J., Vineis, P.: Assessing causal relationships in genomics: from Bradford-Hill criteria to complex gene-environment interactions and directed acyclic graphs. Emerg. Themes Epidemiol. 8(5) (2011)
Ramagopalan, S., Dobson, R., Meier, U.C., Giovannoni, G.: Multiple sclerosis: risk factors, prodromes, and potential causal pathways. Lancet Neurol. 9, 727–739 (2010)
O. f. N. Statistics: Cigarette smoking among adults (2021)
Alves-Leon, S.V., Papais-Alvarenga, R., Magalhaes, M., Thuler, L.C., Fernandez, O.: Ethnicity-dependent association of HLA DRB1-DQA1-DQB1 alleles in Brazilian multiple sclerosis patients. Acta Neurol. Scand. 115(5), 306–311 (2007)
Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry Clinical Effectiveness Group. Vitamin D Guidance (2011)
UK Biobank: Protocol for a Large-Scale Prospective Epidemiological Resource (2007)
Jacobs, B.M., Noyce, A.J., Bestwick, J., Belete, D., Giovannoni, G., Dobson, R.: Gene-environment interactions in multiple sclerosis. Neurology: Neuroimmunol. Neuroinflamm. 8(4) (2021)
Mokry, L.E., Ross, S., Timpson, N.J., Sawcer, S., Davey Smith, G., Richards, J.B.: Obesity and multiple sclerosis: a Mendelian randomization study. PLoS Med. 13(6) (2016)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2022 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Hartmann, M., Fenton, N., Dobson, R. (2022). Development of Bayesian Network for Multiple Sclerosis Risk Factor Interaction Analysis. In: Chicco, D., et al. Computational Intelligence Methods for Bioinformatics and Biostatistics. CIBB 2021. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 13483. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-20837-9_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-20837-9_2
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-031-20836-2
Online ISBN: 978-3-031-20837-9
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)