Abstract
Complex network characteristics such as centralities have lately started to be associated with passenger flows at metro stations. Centralities can be leveraged in an effort to develop fast and cost-efficient passenger flow predictive models. However, the accuracy of such models is still under question and the most appropriate predictors are yet to be found. In this sense, this study attempts to investigate appropriate predictors, and develop a predictive model for daily passenger flows at metro stations, based exclusively on spatial attributes. Using the Athens metro network as a case study, a linear regression model is developed, with node degree, betweenness and closeness centralities of the physical network, node strength of the substitute network, and a dummy variable of station importance being as covariates. An econometric analysis validates that a linear model is suitable for associating centralities with passenger flows, while model’s evaluation metrics indicate satisfying accuracy. In addition, a machine learning benchmark model is utilized to further investigate variable significance and validate the accuracy of the linear model. Last but not least, both models are utilized for predicting passenger flows at the new metro stations of the Athens metro network expansion. Findings suggest that node strength of the substitute network is a powerful predictor and the most significant covariate of both models; both models’ accuracy and predictions converge to a great extent. The model developed is expected to facilitate medium-term disruption management through providing information about metro passenger flows at low cost and high speed.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Han, Y., Peng, T., Wang, C., Zhang, Z., Chen, G.: A hybrid GLM model for predicting citywide spatio-temporal metro passenger flow. ISPRS Int. J. Geo Inf. 10(4), 222 (2021)
Ou, J., Sun, J., Zhu, Y., Jin, H., Liu, Y., Zhang, F., Huang, J., Wang, X.: STP-TrellisNets: Spatial-temporal parallel TrellisNets for metro station passenger flow prediction. In: Proceedings of the 29th ACM International Conference on Information & Knowledge Management, pp. 1185–1194 (2020)
Zheng, Z., Ling, X., Wang, P., Xiao, J., Zhang, F.: Hybrid model for predicting anomalous large passenger flow in urban metros. IET Intel. Transport Syst. 14(14), 1987–1996 (2020)
Yang, X., Xue, Q., Yang, X., Yin, H., Qu, Y., Li, X., Wu, J.: A novel prediction model for the inbound passenger flow of urban rail transit. Inf. Sci. 566, 347–363 (2021)
Sun, Y., Leng, B., Guan, W.: A novel wavelet-SVM short-time passenger flow prediction in Beijing subway system. Neurocomputing 166, 109–121 (2015)
Li, H., Wang, Y., Xu, X., Qin, L., Zhang, H.: Short-term passenger flow prediction under passenger flow control using a dynamic radial basis function network. Appl. Soft Comput. 83, 105620 (2019)
Guo, J., Xie, Z., Qin, Y., Jia, L., Wang, Y.: Short-term abnormal passenger flow prediction based on the fusion of SVR and LSTM. IEEE Access 7, 42946–42955 (2019)
Toqué, F., Khouadjia, M., Come, E., Trepanier, M., Oukhellou, L.: Short & long term forecasting of multimodal transport passenger flows with machine learning methods. In 20th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC), pp. 560–566. IEEE (2017)
Gong, Y., Li, Z., Zhang, J., Liu, W., Yi, J.: Potential passenger flow prediction: a novel study for urban transportation development. In: Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Vol. 34, No. 04, pp. 4020–4027 (2020)
Wang, K., Wang, P., Huang, Z., Ling, X., Zhang, F., Chen, A.: A Two-Step model for predicting travel demand in expanding subways. IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst. (2022)
Lin, J., Ban, Y.: Complex network topology of transportation systems. Transp. Rev. 33(6), 658–685 (2013)
Cats, O., Krishnakumari, P.: Metropolitan rail network robustness. Physica A 549, 124317 (2020)
Yang, Y., Liu, Y., Zhou, M., Li, F., Sun, C.: Robustness assessment of urban rail transit based on complex network theory: a case study of the Beijing Subway. Saf. Sci. 79, 149–162 (2015)
Kopsidas, A., Kepaptsoglou, K.: Identification of critical stations in a metro system: a substitute complex network analysis. Physica A 596, 127123 (2022)
Luo, D., Cats, O., van Lint, H.: Can passenger flow distribution be estimated solely based on network properties in public transport systems? Transportation 47(6), 2757–2776 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-019-09990-w
Zeng, A.Z., Durach, C.F., Fang, Y.: Collaboration decisions on disruption recovery service in urban public tram systems. Transp. Res. Part E: Logistics Transp. Rev. 48(3), 578–590 (2012)
Su, X., Yan, X., Tsai, C.L.: Linear regression. Wiley Interdisc. Rev. Comput. Stat. 4(3), 275–294 (2012)
Gumus, M., Kiran, M.S.: Crude oil price forecasting using XGBoost. In: 2017 International Conference on Computer Science and Engineering (UBMK), pp. 1100–1103. IEEE (2017)
Chen, M., Liu, Q., Chen, S., Liu, Y., Zhang, C.H., Liu, R.: XGBoost-based algorithm interpretation and application on post-fault transient stability status prediction of power system. IEEE Access 7, 13149–13158 (2019)
Spadon, G., de Carvalho, A.C., Rodrigues-Jr, J.F., Alves, L.G.: Reconstructing commuters network using machine learning and urban indicators. Sci. Rep. 9(1), 1–13 (2019)
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the Basic Research Program, PEVE 2021, National Technical University Athens.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2023 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Kopsidas, A., Douvaras, A., Kepaptsoglou, K. (2023). Extracting Metro Passenger Flow Predictors from Network’s Complex Characteristics. In: Cherifi, H., Mantegna, R.N., Rocha, L.M., Cherifi, C., Miccichè, S. (eds) Complex Networks and Their Applications XI. COMPLEX NETWORKS 2016 2022. Studies in Computational Intelligence, vol 1077. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-21127-0_43
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-21127-0_43
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-031-21126-3
Online ISBN: 978-3-031-21127-0
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)