Modeling Approaches for Cyber Attacks on Energy Infrastructure

Abstract

The widespread utilization of communication technology in modern energy production facilities and increasing connectivity of the associated devices with links to the internet can result in broad cyber attack surfaces. As a consequence, cyber security incidents in energy need to be studied closely in order to devise appropriate mitigation techniques. In this paper we discuss models for the analysis of threats focusing on energy infrastructure. While classic IT threat modeling approaches can be applied within this scope, there are certain limitations to these models. We demonstrate the shortcomings of existing methodologies by applying both the STRIDE model as well as the AVD model, which is more suited to energy security threats. By studying 40 security incidents in energy infrastructure, we demonstrate limitations of the aforementioned models and suggest extensions in order to more accurately describe cyber attacks on energy infrastructure. Future modeling approaches should consider the threat actors’ motivations and allow analysis of complex multi-stage or multi-phase attacks.