Mathematical Model for Estimating Mother Tongue Competencies and Learning Outcomes

Abstract

Education in native language should build on the existing knowledge and use of the mother tongue at all levels of education. The development of mother tongue literacy, which not only influences but also helps learners to study vocational disciplines in different fields of education, begins in primary school (preparatory – 4^th grades) and continues with gradually expanding subjects in middle school (gymnasium, 5^th–8^th grades) and in secondary school (lyceum, 9^th–12^th grade). In our research, we examine two basic areas of mother tongue competencies, reading comprehension and writing, estimating the proportion of students who do not possess the necessary skills to pursue their studies successfully. We developed a mathematical model that can be used to predict the number of students whose poor performance in aptitude tests makes it unlikely that they will be able to meet school expectations at the next level of education: primary school students are unlikely to meet middle school level expectations; middle school students are unlikely to continue their education in secondary school; and secondary school students may not be able to meet the necessary requirements for graduation.