Abstract
The strategic political-military decision-making process consists of sequential phases starting from Indications up to Termination. Four questions throughout the process have been identified as the key moment requesting political consensus informed by the military advice. They are as mainly: “What is happening?”, “Why it is happening and what are the implications?”, “What are our response options?”, and “End-state achieved?”. The paper analyzed the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Modelling and Simulation (M&S) in answering these specific questions in the context of complex environment of political military decision-making. It brings an AI use case that studies the relationship between the quality of military capabilities, percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) spent in military budget and the power index score of each nation. To get there, data gathered from JANES database was analyzed, cleaned, normalized and Neural Network models have been implemented to predict the value of a single political level indicator called Calculated PowerIndex (CPIV). CPIV has been used to exercise the what-if analysis to understand consequences of modification of military capabilities or budget of selected country in the ranked order of all countries. It can serve as a political-military decision-making tool with ability to better explain the way the CPIV is expressed in comparison to the existing black box methodology of PowerIndex (PIV) available from Open Source.
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Hodicky, J., Kucuk, V. (2023). Modelling and Simulation and Artificial Intelligence for Strategic Political-Military Decision-Making Process: Case Study. In: Mazal, J., et al. Modelling and Simulation for Autonomous Systems. MESAS 2022. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 13866. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-31268-7_16
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