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On the Semantics of Risk Propagation

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Research Challenges in Information Science: Information Science and the Connected World (RCIS 2023)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing ((LNBIP,volume 476))

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Abstract

Risk propagation encompasses a plethora of techniques for analyzing how risk “spreads” in a given system. Albeit commonly used in technical literature, the very notion of risk propagation turns out to be a conceptually imprecise and overloaded one. This might also explain the multitude of modeling solutions that have been proposed in the literature. Having a clear understanding of what exactly risk is, how it be quantified, and in what sense it can be propagated is fundamental for devising high-quality risk assessment and decision-making solutions. In this paper, we exploit a previous well-established work about the nature of risk and related notions with the goal of providing a proper interpretation of the different notions of risk propagation, as well as revealing and harmonizing the alternative semantics for the links used in common risk propagation graphs. Finally, we discuss how these results can be leveraged in practice to model risk propagation scenarios.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Note that we took COVER as primitive, which was itself subject to validation and proper comparison to the literature of risk in risk analysis and management at large (e.g., [6, 16, 17]).

  2. 2.

    From https://www.collinsdictionary.com/ and https://www.etymonline.com/.

  3. 3.

    [3] advances and ontology-based discussion on causation and event prevention.

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Acknowledgement

This work was done in collaboration with Accenture Labs, Israel. The research conducted by Mattia Fumagalli is also supported by the “Dense and Deep Geographic Virtual Knowledge Graphs for Visual Analysis - D2G2” project, funded by the Autonomous Province of Bolzano.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. In2Data & Conceptual and Cognitive Modeling Research Group (CORE), Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Bolzano, Italy

    Mattia Fumagalli, Ítalo Oliveira & Riccardo Baratella

  2. Accenture Israel Cyber R &D Lab, Tel Aviv, Israel

    Gal Engelberg & Dan Klein

  3. Semantics, Cybersecurity & Services (SCS), University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands

    Tiago Prince Sales & Giancarlo Guizzardi

  4. University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel

    Pnina Soffer

Authors
  1. Mattia Fumagalli
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  2. Gal Engelberg
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  3. Tiago Prince Sales
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  4. Ítalo Oliveira
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  5. Dan Klein
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  6. Pnina Soffer
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  7. Riccardo Baratella
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  8. Giancarlo Guizzardi
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Mattia Fumagalli .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris, France

    Selmin Nurcan

  2. University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway

    Andreas L. Opdahl

  3. University of Essex, Colchester, UK

    Haralambos Mouratidis

  4. Ionian University, Corfu, Greece

    Aggeliki Tsohou

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Fumagalli, M. et al. (2023). On the Semantics of Risk Propagation. In: Nurcan, S., Opdahl, A.L., Mouratidis, H., Tsohou, A. (eds) Research Challenges in Information Science: Information Science and the Connected World. RCIS 2023. Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing, vol 476. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-33080-3_5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-33080-3_5

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-031-33079-7

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-031-33080-3

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