Skip to main content

Causal Reasoning over Probabilistic Uncertainty

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI 2023)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNAI,volume 13921))

Included in the following conference series:

  • 781 Accesses

Abstract

A system deployed in the real world will need to handle uncertainty in its observations and interventions. For this, we present an approach to introduce uncertainty of state variables in causal reasoning using a constructivist AI architecture. Open questions of how noisy data can be handled and intervention uncertainty can be represented in a causal reasoning system will be addressed. In addition, we will show how handling uncertainty can improve a system’s planning and attention mechanisms. We present the reasoning process of the system, including reasoning over uncertainty, in the form of a feed-forward algorithm, highlighting how noisy data and beliefs of states can be included in the process of causal reasoning.

This work was funded in part by the Icelandic Research Fund (IRF) (grant number 228604-051) and a research grant from Cisco Systems, USA.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 64.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    See https://openaera.orgaccessed Apr. 6, 2023.

References

  1. Eberding, L.M.: Comparison of machine learners on an ABA experiment format of the Cart-Pole Task. In: International Workshop on Self-Supervised Learning, pp. 49–63. PMLR (2022)

    Google Scholar 

  2. Eberding, L.M., Thórisson, K.R., Sheikhlar, A., Andrason, S.P.: SAGE: task-environment platform for evaluating a broad range of AI learners. In: Goertzel, B., Panov, A.I., Potapov, A., Yampolskiy, R. (eds.) AGI 2020. LNCS (LNAI), vol. 12177, pp. 72–82. Springer, Cham (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-52152-3_8

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  3. Goertzel, B., Iklé, M., Goertzel, I.F., Heljakka, A.: Probabilistic Logic Networks: A Comprehensive Framework for Uncertain Inference. Springer, New York (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-76872-4

    Book  MATH  Google Scholar 

  4. Hammer, P., Lofthouse, T.: ‘OpenNARS for applications’: architecture and control. In: Goertzel, B., Panov, A.I., Potapov, A., Yampolskiy, R. (eds.) AGI 2020. LNCS (LNAI), vol. 12177, pp. 193–204. Springer, Cham (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-52152-3_20

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  5. Nivel, E., et al.: Bounded recursive self-improvement. arXiv preprint arXiv:1312.6764 (2013)

  6. Sheikhlar, A., Eberding, L.M., Thórisson, K.R.: Causal generalization in autonomous learning controllers. In: Goertzel, B., Iklé, M., Potapov, A. (eds.) AGI 2021. LNCS (LNAI), vol. 13154, pp. 228–238. Springer, Cham (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93758-4_24

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  7. Thórisson, K.R.: A new constructivist AI: from manual methods to self-constructive systems. In: Wang, P., Goertzel, B. (eds.) Theoretical Foundations of Artificial General Intelligence, pp. 145–171. Springer, Paris (2012). https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-91216-62-6_9

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  8. Thórisson, K.R.: Machines with autonomy & general intelligence: which methodology? In: Proceedings of the Workshop on Architectures for Generality and Autonomy (2017)

    Google Scholar 

  9. Thórisson, K.R.: The ‘explanation hypothesis’ in general self-supervised learning. In: Proceedings of Machine Learning Research, vol. 159, pp. 5–27 (2021)

    Google Scholar 

  10. Thrun, S.: Probabilistic robotics. Commun. ACM 45(3), 52–57 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Wang, P.: Non-Axiomatic Reasoning System: Exploring the Essence of Intelligence. Indiana University (1995)

    Google Scholar 

  12. Wang, P.: Rigid Flexibility: The Logic of Intelligence, vol. 34. Springer, Dordrecht (2006)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Leonard M. Eberding .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2023 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Eberding, L.M., Thórisson, K.R. (2023). Causal Reasoning over Probabilistic Uncertainty. In: Hammer, P., Alirezaie, M., Strannegård, C. (eds) Artificial General Intelligence. AGI 2023. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 13921. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-33469-6_8

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-33469-6_8

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-031-33468-9

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-031-33469-6

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics