Abstract
The declining birth rate in Japan poses a significant threat to the survival of half of municipalities, leading to a recent surge in studies exploring the causes of this phenomenon using Total Fertility Rate (TFR) as a benchmark for municipal unit data. However, focusing solely on TFR is insufficient when investigating the municipal-level reasons for the declining birthrate. In this paper, we conducted a thorough analysis of fertility decline by considering TFR and women’s migration patterns, using both Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to account for regional differences. Our findings reveal that low income and women’s social advancement, commonly regarded as factors contributing to declining fertility, do not significantly impact this phenomenon. Additionally, we observed regional disparities in TFR that cannot be explained by the variables incorporated in this study, with a trend of higher TFR in the west and lower TFR in the east. Moreover, by examining successful population maintenance policies in various regions, we identified common steps that have proven effective in maintaining population growth.
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Kurashima, S., Asahi, Y. (2023). What Causes Fertility Rate Difference Among Municipalities in Japan. In: Mori, H., Asahi, Y. (eds) Human Interface and the Management of Information. HCII 2023. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 14015. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-35132-7_16
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-35132-7_16
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