Abstract
In his recent book “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order”, Ray Dalio considered many historical crisis situations, and came up with several data points showing how the probability of a revolution or a civil war depends on the number of economic red flags. In this paper, we provide a simple empirical formula that is consistent with these data points.
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References
R. Dalio, Principles of Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail (Avid Reader Press, New York, 2021)
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Acknowledgements
This work was supported in part by the National Science Foundation grants 1623190 (A Model of Change for Preparing a New Generation for Professional Practice in Computer Science), and HRD-1834620 and HRD-2034030 (CAHSI Includes), and by the AT&T Fellowship in Information Technology.
It was also supported by the program of the development of the Scientific-Educational Mathematical Center of Volga Federal District No. 075-02-2020-1478, and by a grant from the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Office (NRDI). The authors are thankful to Omar Badreddin for his valuable advice.
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Kosheleva, O., Kreinovich, V. (2023). How Probable is a Revolution? A Natural ReLU-Like Formula That Fits the Historical Data. In: Ceberio, M., Kreinovich, V. (eds) Uncertainty, Constraints, and Decision Making. Studies in Systems, Decision and Control, vol 484. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-36394-8_15
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-36394-8_15
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