Abstract
The recent incursion of Russian military forces onto Ukrainian territory has sparked global apprehension regarding the stability of stock market prices. This paper forecasts the direction that Brent spot prices will take during the year following the 2022 Ukrainian conflict, using ARFIMA parametric and semiparametric methods. According to the series’ long memory, prices will fall steeply during the next few months, reaching up to 80 or 75 dollars by the end of March 2023.
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Davidescu, A.A., Manta, E.M., Florescu, MS., Cojocaru, M.R. (2023). A Forecast of Brent Prices in Times of Ukrainian Crisis Using ARFIMA Models. In: Jallouli, R., Bach Tobji, M.A., Belkhir, M., Soares, A.M., Casais, B. (eds) Digital Economy. Emerging Technologies and Business Innovation. ICDEc 2023. Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing, vol 485. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-42788-6_25
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