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A Bayesian Approach of Predicting the Movement of Internally Displaced Persons

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Social, Cultural, and Behavioral Modeling (SBP-BRiMS 2023)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNCS,volume 14161))

Abstract

This paper proposes an approximate Bayesian model to predict the number of internally displaced people arriving to a location. Locations are characterized by their elevation, distance from point of departure, and land cover. The model is applied to the population and terrain data of the North Kivu province in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Results suggest that distance captures about 67% of the influence on the choice of destination; elevation captures 9%, and land cover 24%.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the National Science Foundation DMS-1939203. Additionally, this research was supported by a grant from the Office of Naval Research (N000141912624) through the Minerva Research Initiative. None of the views reported in the study are those of the funding organizations.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA, 23529, USA

    Obed Domson & Guohui Song

  2. Virginia Modeling, Analysis and Simulation Center, Old Dominion University, Suffolk, VA, 23435, USA

    Jose J. Padilla & Erika Frydenlund

Authors
  1. Obed Domson
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  2. Jose J. Padilla
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  3. Guohui Song
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  4. Erika Frydenlund
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Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Jose J. Padilla , Guohui Song or Erika Frydenlund .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Army Cyber Institute, United States Military Academy, West Point, NY, USA

    Robert Thomson

  2. Creighton University, Omaha, NE, USA

    Samer Al-khateeb

  3. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA

    Annetta Burger

  4. Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburg, PA, USA

    Patrick Park

  5. Army Cyber Institute, United States Military Academy, West Point, NY, USA

    Aryn A. Pyke

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Domson, O., Padilla, J.J., Song, G., Frydenlund, E. (2023). A Bayesian Approach of Predicting the Movement of Internally Displaced Persons. In: Thomson, R., Al-khateeb, S., Burger, A., Park, P., A. Pyke, A. (eds) Social, Cultural, and Behavioral Modeling. SBP-BRiMS 2023. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 14161. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-43129-6_24

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-43129-6_24

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-031-43128-9

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-031-43129-6

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

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