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Developing a Foresight Model for Law Enforcement Organizations to Detect and Analyze Future Challenges and Threats

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Information Systems and Technologies (WorldCIST 2023)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems ((LNNS,volume 801))

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Abstract

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a method for making decisions in situations where multiple criteria must be considered. It is particularly useful in crisis situations where there are a number of feasible choices and decision criteria with diverse priorities. The author has developed a new model using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method to detect and analyze future risks and challenges in Dubai Police and provide early warning signs to decision makers. The AHP method allows decision makers to differentiate between the importance of each criterion and compare them according to their importance. This helps to avoid stimulating risks or crises by choosing the best alternative based on a systematic evaluation of the available options. A proof-of-concept has been implemented as part of the work done by the author. The model is designed to improve the future readiness of Dubai Police by identifying and analyzing potential risks and challenges. The model uses mathematical, operational research, and decision-making models and is intended to be more reliable and practical than current models used in the law-enforcement sector, which are often deterministic, simplified, or inconsistent in their application and assumptions.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Data represented in this paper is not a real data but used to test the model suggested by the author.

  2. 2.

    The coefficient of determination R2 is most often seen as a number between 0 and 1.0, used to describe how well a regression line fits a set of data. An R2 near 1.0 indicates that a regression line fits the data well, while an R2 closer to 0 indicates a regression line does not fit the data very well

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Foresight and Decision-Making Support Center, Dubai Police, Dubai, UAE

    Mohamed SaadEldin

Authors
  1. Mohamed SaadEldin
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Mohamed SaadEldin .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Cávado, Portugal

    Alvaro Rocha

  2. College of Engineering, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA

    Hojjat Adeli

  3. Institute of Data Science and Digital Technologies, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania

    Gintautas Dzemyda

  4. DCT, Universidade Portucalense, Porto, Portugal

    Fernando Moreira

  5. TeCIP Institute, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa, Italy

    Valentina Colla

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SaadEldin, M. (2024). Developing a Foresight Model for Law Enforcement Organizations to Detect and Analyze Future Challenges and Threats. In: Rocha, A., Adeli, H., Dzemyda, G., Moreira, F., Colla, V. (eds) Information Systems and Technologies. WorldCIST 2023. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol 801. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-45648-0_31

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