Skip to main content

On Independence and Compound and Iterated Conditionals

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Human and Artificial Rationalities (HAR 2023)

Abstract

Understanding the logic of uncertain conditionals is a key problem in the new paradigm psychology of reasoning and related fields. We investigate conjunctions of conditionals, iterated conditionals, and independence within the theory of logical operations on conditionals, where compound conditionals are suitably defined as conditional random quantities. We show how conjunctions of conditionals and conditionals which feature conditionals in the antecedent and the consequent can be rationally interpreted. In particular, we study the behavior of such objects under different logical constraints, by also considering a kind of “independence” property. Unlike alternative approaches, in our framework we avoid counterintuitive consequences, which is necessary for understanding, or improving, human and artificial rationality in general.

A. Gilio—Retired.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 59.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 79.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Adams, E.W.: The Logic of Conditionals. Reidel, Dordrecht (1975)

    Book  Google Scholar 

  2. Baratgin, J., Over, D.E., Politzer, G.: Uncertainty and the de Finetti tables. Think. Reason. 19(3–4), 308–328 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Baratgin, J., Politzer, G., Over, D.E., Takahashi, T.: The psychology of uncertainty and three-valued truth tables. Front. Psychol. 9, 1479 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Bourlier, M., Jacquet, B., Lassiter, D., Baratgin, J.: Coherence, not conditional meaning, accounts for the relevance effect. Front. Psychol. 14 (2023)

    Google Scholar 

  5. Bradley, R.: Multidimensional possible-world semantics for conditionals. Philos. Rev. 121(4), 539–571 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Cantwell, J.: Revisiting McGee’s probabilistic analysis of conditionals. J. Philos. Log. 51(5), 973–1017 (2022)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  7. Castronovo, L., Sanfilippo, G.: Iterated conditionals, trivalent logics, and conditional random quantities. In: Dupin de Saint-Cyr, F., Ozturk-Escoffier, M., Potyka, N. (eds.) Scalable Uncertainty Management. SUM 2022. LNCS, vol. 13562, pp. 47–63. Springer, Cham (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-18843-5_4

  8. Cruz, N.: Deduction from uncertain premises? In: Elqayam, S., Douven, I., Evans, J.S.B.T., Cruz, N. (eds.), Logic and Uncertainty in the Human Mind: A Tribute to David E. Over, pp. 27–41. Routledge, Oxon (2020)

    Google Scholar 

  9. Cruz, N., Baratgin, J., Oaksford, M., Over, D.E.: Centering and the meaning of conditionals. In: Papafragou, A., Grodner, D., Mirman, D., Trueswell, J. (eds.), Proceedings of the 38 th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society, pp. 1104–1109, Austin, TX, 2016. The Cognitive Science Society (2016)

    Google Scholar 

  10. Cruz, N., Over, D.E.: Independence conditionals. In: Kaufmann, S., Over, D.E., Sharma, G. (eds.) Conditionals – Logic. Linguistics, and Psychology, pp. 223–233. Palgrave Macmillan, London (2023)

    Google Scholar 

  11. de Finetti, B.: La logique de la probabilité. In: Actes du Congrès International de Philosophie Scientifique, Paris, 1935 , pp. IV 1–IV 9 (1936)

    Google Scholar 

  12. de Finetti, B.: Foresight: its logical laws, its subjective sources. In: Studies in subjective probability, pp. 55–118. Krieger, Huntington (1980). English translation of La Prévision: Ses Lois Logiques, Ses Sources Subjectives, Annales de l’Institut Henri Poincaré, 17:1–68 (1937)

    Google Scholar 

  13. Douven, I., Dietz, R.: A puzzle about Stalnaker’s hypothesis. Topoi, pp. 31–37 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  14. Douven, I., Elqayam, S., Krzyanowska, K.: Inferentialism: A manifesto. In: Kaufmann, S., Over, D.E., Sharma, G. (eds.) Conditionals-Logic. Linguistics and Psychology, pp. 175–221. Palgrave Macmillan, London (2023)

    Google Scholar 

  15. Douven, I., Elqayam, S., Singmann, H., van Wijnbergen-Huitink, J.: Conditionals and inferential connections: toward a new semantics. Think. Reason. 26(3), 311–351 (2020)

    Google Scholar 

  16. Douven, I.: The Epistemology of Indicative Conditionals: Formal and Empirical Approaches. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  17. Edgington, D.: Matter-of-fact conditionals. Proc. Aristot. Soc. 65, 185–209 (1991)

    Google Scholar 

  18. Edgington, D.: On conditionals. Mind 104, 235–329 (1995)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  19. Edgington, D.: Compounds of conditionals, uncertainty, and indeterminacy. In: Logic and Uncertainty in the Human Mind, pp. 43–56. Routledge, Abingdon (2020)

    Google Scholar 

  20. Egré, P., Rossi, L., Sprenger, J.: De Finettian logics of indicative conditionals part I: trivalent semantics and validity. J. Philos. Log. (2020)

    Google Scholar 

  21. Evans, J.S.B.T., Handley, S.J., Over, D.E.: Conditionals and conditional probability. J. Exp. Psychol. Learn. Memory Cogn. 29(2), 321–355 (2003)

    Google Scholar 

  22. Flaminio, T., Gilio, A., Godo, L., Sanfilippo, G.: Compound conditionals as random quantities and Boolean algebras. In: Proceedings of the 19th International Conference on Principles of Knowledge Representation and Reasoning, KR 2022, pp. 141–151 (2022)

    Google Scholar 

  23. Francez, N.: Natural deduction for two connexive logics. IfCoLog J. Log. Appl. 3, 479–504 (2016)

    Google Scholar 

  24. Fugard, A.J.B., Pfeifer, N., Mayerhofer, B., Kleiter, G.D.: How people interpret conditionals: shifts towards the conditional event. J. Exp. Psychol. Learn. Memory Cogn. 37(3), 635–648 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Gilio, A., Over, D.E., Pfeifer, N., Sanfilippo, G.: On trivalent logics, compound conditionals, and probabilistic deduction theorems (submitted). Preprint: http://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10268

  26. Gilio, A., Pfeifer, N., Sanfilippo, G.: Probabilistic entailment and iterated conditionals. In: Elqayam, S., Douven, I., Evans, J.S.B.T., Cruz, N. (eds.), Logic and Uncertainty in the Human Mind: A Tribute to David E. Over, pp. 71–101. Routledge, Oxon (2020)

    Google Scholar 

  27. Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G.: Conditional random quantities and iterated conditioning in the setting of coherence. In: van der Gaag, L.C. (ed.) Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty. ECSQARU 2013. LNCS, vol. 7958, pp. 218–229. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-39091-3_19

  28. Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G.: Conjunction, disjunction and iterated conditioning of conditional events. In: Kruse, R., Berthold, M., Moewes, C., Gil, M., Grzegorzewski, P., Hryniewicz, O. (eds.) Synergies of Soft Computing and Statistics for Intelligent Data Analysis. AISC, vol. 190, pp. 399–407. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-33042-1_43

  29. Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G.: Probabilistic entailment in the setting of coherence: the role of quasi conjunction and inclusion relation. Int. J. Approx. Reason. 54(4), 513–525 (2013)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  30. Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G.: Conditional random quantities and compounds of conditionals. Stud. Log. 102(4), 709–729 (2014)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  31. Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G.: Generalized logical operations among conditional events. Appl. Intell. 49(1), 79–102 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G.: Algebraic aspects and coherence conditions for conjoined and disjoined conditionals. Int. J. Approx. Reason. 126, 98–123 (2020)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  33. Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G.: Compound conditionals, Fréchet-Hoeffding bounds, and Frank t-norms. Int. J. Approx. Reason. 136, 168–200 (2021)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G.: Iterated conditionals and characterization of p-entailment. In: Vejnarova, J., Wilson, N. (eds.) Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty. ECSQARU 2021. LNCS, vol. 12897, pp. 629–643. Springer, Cham (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86772-0_45

  35. Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G.: On compound and iterated conditionals. Argumenta 6(2), 241–266 (2021)

    Google Scholar 

  36. Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G.: Subjective probability, trivalent logics and compound conditionals. In: Égré, P., Rossi, L. (eds.), Handbook of Three-Valued Logics. MIT Press, Cambridge (forthcoming)

    Google Scholar 

  37. Kaufmann, S.: Conditionals right and left: probabilities for the whole family. J. Philos. Log. 38, 1–53 (2009)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  38. Krzyżanowska, K., Wenmackers, S., Douven, I.: Inferential conditionals and evidentiality. J. Log. Lang. Inform. 22(3), 315–334 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. Lance, M.: Probabilistic dependence among conditionals. Philos. Rev. 100(2), 269–276 (1991)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Lassiter, D.: Decomposing relevance in conditionals. Mind & Language (2022)

    Google Scholar 

  41. Lassiter, D., Baratgin, J.: Nested conditionals and genericity in the de Finetti semantics. J. Philos. 10(1), 42–52 (2021)

    Google Scholar 

  42. Lewis, D.: Probabilities of conditionals and conditional probabilities. Philos. Rev. 85(3), 297–315 (1976)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  43. McGee, V.: Conditional probabilities and compounds of conditionals. Philos. Rev. 98(4), 485–541 (1989)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. Oaksford, M., Chater, N.: Bayesian Rationality: The Probabilistic Approach to Human Reasoning. Oxford University Press, Oxford (2007)

    Book  Google Scholar 

  45. Oberauer, K., Wilhelm, O.: The meaning(s) of conditionals: conditional probabilities, mental models and personal utilities. J. Exp. Psychol. Learn. Memory Cogn. 29(4), 680–693 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  46. Over, D.E.: The development of the new paradigm in the psychology of reasoning. In: Logic and Uncertainty in the Human Mind, pp. 243–263. Routledge, Abingdon (2020)

    Google Scholar 

  47. Over, D.E., Cruz, N.: Suppositional theory of conditionals and rationality. In: Knauff, M., Spohn, W. (eds.), Handbook of Rationality, pp. 395–404. MIT Press (2021)

    Google Scholar 

  48. Over, D.E., Cruz, N.: Indicative and counterfactual conditionals in the psychology of reasoning. In: Kaufmann, S., Over, D.E., Sharma, G. (eds.) Conditionals – logic. linguistics, and psychology, pp. 139–174. Palgrave Macmillan, London (2023)

    Google Scholar 

  49. Pfeifer, N.: Experiments on Aristotle’s thesis: towards an experimental philosophy of conditionals. Monist 95(2), 223–240 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  50. Pfeifer, N.: The new psychology of reasoning: a mental probability logical perspective. Think. Reason. 19(3–4), 329–345 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  51. Pfeifer, N.: The logic and pragmatics of conditionals under uncertainty: a mental probability logic perspective. In: Kaufmann, S., Over, D.E., Sharma, G. (eds.) Conditionals – Logic. Linguistics, and Psychology, pp. 73–102. Palgrave Macmillan, London (2023)

    Google Scholar 

  52. Pfeifer, N., Sanfilippo, G.: Connexive logic, probabilistic default reasoning, and compound conditionals. Studia Logica, in press. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11225-023-10054-5

  53. Pfeifer, N., Schöppl, L.: Experimental philosophy of connexivity. In: Wansing H., Omori, H. (eds.) 60 Years of Connexive Logic. Trends in Logic. Springer, Cham (to appear). Preprint: https://philpapers.org/rec/PFEEPO

  54. Pfeifer, N., Tulkki, L.: Conditionals, counterfactuals, and rational reasoning. An experimental study on basic principles. Minds Mach. 27(1), 119–165 (2017)

    Google Scholar 

  55. Politzer, G., Over, D.E., Baratgin, J.: Betting on conditionals. Think. Reason. 16(3), 172–197 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  56. Sanfilippo, G.: Lower and upper probability bounds for some conjunctions of two conditional events. In: Ciucci, D., Pasi, G., Vantaggi, B. (eds.) Scalable Uncertainty Management. SUM 2018. LNCS, vol. 11142, pp. 260–275. Springer, Cham (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00461-3_18

  57. Sanfilippo, G., Gilio, A., Over, D.E., Pfeifer, N.: Probabilities of conditionals and previsions of iterated conditionals. Int. J. Approx. Reason. 121, 150–173 (2020)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  58. Sanfilippo, G., Pfeifer, N., Over, D.E., Gilio, A.: Probabilistic inferences from conjoined to iterated conditionals. Int. J. Approx. Reason. 93(Supplement C), 103–118 (2018)

    Google Scholar 

  59. Stalnaker, R.C.: Probability and conditionals. Philos. Sci. 37(1), 64–80 (1970)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  60. Van Fraassen, B.C.: Probabilities of conditionals. In: Harper, W.L., Hooker, C.A. (eds.) Foundations of Probability Theory, Statistical Inference, and Statistical Theories of Science. The University of Western Ontario Series in Philosophy of Science, vol. 6a, pp. 261–308. Springer, Dordrecht (1976). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-1853-1_10

  61. Vidal, M., Baratgin, J.: A psychological study of unconnected conditionals. J. Cogn. Psychol. 29(6), 769–781 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  62. Wansing, H.: Connexive logic. In: Zalta, E.N. (ed.), The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Summer 2022 edition (2022)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank three anonymous reviewers, John Cantwell, and the chair for useful comments and suggestions. G. Sanfilippo is member of the INdAM-GNAMPA research group and is supported by the FFR 2024 project of University of Palermo, Italy.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Giuseppe Sanfilippo .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2024 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Gilio, A., Over, D., Pfeifer, N., Sanfilippo, G. (2024). On Independence and Compound and Iterated Conditionals. In: Baratgin, J., Jacquet, B., Yama, H. (eds) Human and Artificial Rationalities. HAR 2023. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 14522. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-55245-8_11

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-55245-8_11

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-031-55244-1

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-031-55245-8

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics