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Assessing the Effect of the Lack of Essential Workforce on the Economic Sectors During a Pandemic

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Critical Information Infrastructures Security (CRITIS 2023)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNCS,volume 14599))

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Abstract

This study presents a dynamic modeling framework that combines epidemiological and Input-Output analyses to evaluate the impact of a pandemic on essential occupational sectors in a nation and to assess the downstream consequences of the unavailability of essential workforce, due to the presence of interdependency relations among infrastructures or sectors. In particular, the proposed approach relies on a compartmental SIR epidemiological model that considers different age classes. Based on such a model, the amount of unavailable essential workforce due to the pandemics is identified and fed into a Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output model (D-IIM), which in turn provides the dynamics of the degree of inoperability of the different sectors due to both the initial perturbation caused by the lack of essential workforce and to the effect of interdependency relations. The potential of the framework is demonstrated via a proof-of-concept simulation analysis for a scenario in Italy at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, considering realistic data.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Universitá Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, via Álvaro del Portillo 21, 00128, Rome, Italy

    Stefano Bartolucci, Roberto Setola & Gabriele Oliva

  2. ISC-CNR Physics Department, Università La Sapienza, Rome, Italy

    Antonio Scala

  3. Department of Civil Computer Science and Aeronautical Technologies Engineering, University Roma Tre, Rome, Italy

    Stefano Panzieri

Authors
  1. Stefano Bartolucci
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  2. Roberto Setola
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  3. Antonio Scala
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  4. Stefano Panzieri
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  5. Gabriele Oliva
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Gabriele Oliva .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. University of the Bundeswehr Munich, Neubiberg, Germany

    Stefan Pickl

  2. Lucerne University of Applied Sciences, Luzern, Switzerland

    Bernhard Hämmerli

  3. Laurea University of Applied Sciences, Vantaa, Finland

    Päivi Mattila

  4. Laurea University of Applied Sciences, Vantaa, Finland

    Annaleena Sevillano

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Bartolucci, S., Setola, R., Scala, A., Panzieri, S., Oliva, G. (2024). Assessing the Effect of the Lack of Essential Workforce on the Economic Sectors During a Pandemic. In: Pickl, S., Hämmerli, B., Mattila, P., Sevillano, A. (eds) Critical Information Infrastructures Security. CRITIS 2023. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 14599. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-62139-0_2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-62139-0_2

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