Abstract
In this paper, an integrated agent-based (AB) and system dynamics (SD) model is developed to study the market share evolution of light duty vehicles in Iceland. The model takes into account the conventional internal combustion engine vehicles that are currently dominant in the market and the alternative fuel vehicles including various types of electric vehicles, bio-fuels and fuel cell vehicles. SD approach is used to simulate the development of continuous, homogenous and aggregate variables of the energy supply system over time. The AB approach is employed to study the consumer behavior and market share evolution of passenger vehicles. Different vehicles compete for market penetration through a vehicle choice algorithm that accounts for social influences and consumers’ attractiveness for vehicle attributes. The linking variables between AB and SD components are identified and then these two bottom-up and top-down approaches are integrated to provide a comprehensive framework. The main results provided by the application of this modeling approach for the case study of Iceland are market share evolution of various vehicle types and consumers’ fuel demands during the period 2013–2050.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Parunak, H.V., Savit, R., Riolo, R.L.: Agent-based modeling vs. equation-based modeling: a case study and user’s guide. In: Proceedings of Multi-agent Systems and Agent-based, Simulation, pp. 10–25 (1998).
Keenan, P., Paich, M.: Modeling general motors and the north American automobile market. In: The 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Oxford, England (2004)
Kieckhäfer, K., Walther, G., Axmann, J., Spengler, T.: Integrating agent-based simulation and system dynamics to support product strategy decisions in the automotive industry. In: Proceedings of the 2009 Winter Simulation Conference, pp. 1433–1443 (2009)
Köhler, J., Whitmarsh, L., Nykvist, B., Schilperoord, M., Bergman, N., Haxeltine, A.: A transitions model for sustainable mobility. J. Ecol. Econ. 68, 2985–2995 (2009)
Shafiei, E., Thorkelsson, H., Ásgeirsson, E.I., Davidsdottir, B., Raberto, M., Stefánsson, H.: An agent-based modeling approach to predict the evolution of market share of electric vehicles: a case study from Iceland. J. Technol. Forecast. Soc. 79, 1638–1653 (2012)
AnyLogic simulation software, XJ Technologies Company, www.xjtek.com
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
About this paper
Cite this paper
Shafiei, E., Stefansson, H., Ásgeirsson, E.I., Davidsdottir, B. (2014). Market Penetration of Alternative Fuel Vehicles in Iceland: A Hybrid Modeling Approach. In: Helber, S., et al. Operations Research Proceedings 2012. Operations Research Proceedings. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-00795-3_65
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-00795-3_65
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-00794-6
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-00795-3
eBook Packages: Business and EconomicsBusiness and Management (R0)