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Analyzing Relationship between Tourist Arrivals from China and India to Thailand Using Copula Based GARCH and Seasonal Pattern

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Modeling Dependence in Econometrics

Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ((AISC,volume 251))

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Abstract

Chinese and Indian are the emerging tourist markets for Thailand. The two nations have tourism potential and make for interesting on doing a study about their tourism demand that was measure as the number of tourist arrivals. This study analyzed relationship between the tourist arrivals from China and India to Thailand by using the copula based GARCH model and the seasonal pattern. The findings by the copula based GARCH model show that there exists a weak positive dependence between the growth rates of tourist arrivals from China and India to Thailand and that this dependence keeps varying over time. The rotated Joe 180. copula, which can capture the lower (left) tail dependence, is chosen to describe the dependence structure. These mean that the growth rates of the tourist arrivals from China and India show a co-movementwhich is both upward and downward but with weak dependence. The rise or loss of tourism demand from China (India) is slightly correlated by a rise or loss of tourism demand from India (China). These results correspond to the seasonal patterns in which the seasonal pattern of China is in a direction opposite to the seasonal pattern of India in several periods, and the patterns showing a co-movement during some periods. Understanding the relationship between Chinese arrivals and Indian arrivals in each time period, it could contribute to policy implications such as developing the appropriate marketing and promotion strategies to attract other tourist markets as substitutes when we lose the regular tourist markets due to shock effects or low season.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, 50200, Thailand

    Ornanong Puarattanaarunkorn & Songsak Sriboonchitta

Authors
  1. Ornanong Puarattanaarunkorn
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  2. Songsak Sriboonchitta
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ornanong Puarattanaarunkorn .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. APAN Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Ishikawa, Japan

    Van-Nam Huynh

  2. Department of Computer Science, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, Texas, USA

    Vladik Kreinovich

  3. Faculty of Economics, Chiangmai University, Chiangmai, Thailand

    Songsak Sriboonchitta

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Puarattanaarunkorn, O., Sriboonchitta, S. (2014). Analyzing Relationship between Tourist Arrivals from China and India to Thailand Using Copula Based GARCH and Seasonal Pattern. In: Huynh, VN., Kreinovich, V., Sriboonchitta, S. (eds) Modeling Dependence in Econometrics. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 251. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-03395-2_23

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-03395-2_23

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-03394-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-03395-2

  • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)

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