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Simulating International Energy Security

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Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction (SBP 2014)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNISA,volume 8393))

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Abstract

Energy security is placed at risk by exogenous supply shocks, in particular political crises and conflicts that disrupt resource extraction and transportation. In this paper, a computational model of the security of international crude oil supplies is described, and its output analyzed. The model consists of country agents, linked geographically and by a data-derived oil trade network. Countries stochastically experience crises, with probabilities and durations drawn randomly from data-fitted distributions. The effect of these crises on secure oil supplies is measured globally and by country, and the effect of conflict contagion and spare production capacity are also estimated. The model indicates that Russia, Eastern Europe, and much of the Global South are at the greatest risk of supply shocks, while American producers are at greatest risk of demand shocks. It estimates that conflict contagion decreases energy security slightly, while spare capacity has minimal effect.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Computational Social Science, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA

    David Masad

Authors
  1. David Masad
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Social Complexity and Department of Computational Social Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, MS 6B2, 22030-4400, Fairfax, VA, USA

    William G. Kennedy

  2. University of Arkansas at Little Rock, 2801 South University Avenue, EIT Building, Room 553, 72204, Little Rock, AR, USA

    Nitin Agarwal

  3. Department of Computer Engineering, Rochester Institute of Technology, 83 Lomb Memorial Drive, Bldg 09, 14623-5603, Rochester, NY, USA

    Shanchieh Jay Yang

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© 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

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Masad, D. (2014). Simulating International Energy Security. In: Kennedy, W.G., Agarwal, N., Yang, S.J. (eds) Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction. SBP 2014. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 8393. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-05579-4_37

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-05579-4_37

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-05578-7

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-05579-4

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

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