Skip to main content

Customer Churn Prediction in Telecommunication Industry: With and without Counter-Example

  • Conference paper
Nature-Inspired Computation and Machine Learning (MICAI 2014)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNAI,volume 8857))

Included in the following conference series:

Abstract

This study contributes to formalize customer churn prediction where rough set theory is used as one-class classifier and multi-class classifier to investigate the trade-off in the selection of an effective classification model for customer churn prediction. Experiments were performed to explore the performance of four different rule generation algorithms (i.e. exhaustive, genetic, covering and LEM2). It is observed that rough set as one-class classifier and multi-class classifier based on genetic algorithm yields more suitable performance as compared to the other three rule generation algorithms. Furthermore, by applying the proposed techniques (i.e. Rough sets as one-class and multi-class classifiers) on publicly available dataset, the results show that rough set as a multi - class classifier provides more accurate results for binary/multi-class classification problems.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Verbeke, W., Martens, D., Mues, C., Baesens, B.: Building comprehensible customer churn prediction models with advanced rule induction techniques. Expert Syst. Appl. 38, 2354–2364 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Lin, C.-S., Tzeng, G.-H., Chin, Y.-C.: Combined rough set theory and flow network graph to predict customer churn in credit card accounts. Expert Syst. Appl. 38, 8–15 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Hadden, J., Tiwari, A., Roy, R., Ruta, D.: Computer assisted customer churn management: State-of-the-art and future trends. Comput. Oper. Res. 34, 2902–2917 (2007)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  4. Khan, I., Tariq Usman, G.U.R.: Intelligent Churn prediction for Telecommunication Industry. Int. J. Innov. Appl. Stud. 4, 165–170 (2013)

    Google Scholar 

  5. Sharma, A.: A Neural Network based Approach for Predicting Customer Churn in Cellular Network Services. Int. J. Comput. Appl. 27, 26–31 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  6. Kirui, C., Hong, L., Cheruiyot, W., Kirui, H.: Predicting Customer Churn in Mobile Telephony Industry Using Probabilistic Classifiers in Data Mining. IJCSI Int. J. Comput. Sci. Issues 10, 165–172 (2013)

    Google Scholar 

  7. Soeini, R.A., Rodpysh, K.V.: Applying Data Mining to Insurance Customer Churn Management 30, 82–92 (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  8. Hung, S.-Y., Yen, D.C., Wang, H.-Y.: Applying data mining to telecom churn management. Expert Syst. Appl. 31, 515–524 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Huang, B., Kechadi, M.T., Buckley, B.: Customer churn prediction in telecommunications. Expert Syst. Appl. 39, 1414–1425 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Wolniewicz, R.H., Dodier, R.: Predicting customer behavior in telecommunications. IEEE Intell. Syst. 19, 50–58 (2004)

    Google Scholar 

  11. Saradhi, V.V., Palshikar, G.K.: Employee churn prediction. Expert Syst. Appl. 38, 1999–2006 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Lazarov, V., Capota, M.: Churn Prediction. Bus. Anal. Course. TUM Comput. Sci.

    Google Scholar 

  13. Keaveney, S.M.: Customer switching behavior in service industries: An exploratory study. J. Mark. 59, 71–82

    Google Scholar 

  14. Verbeke, W., Martens, D., Baesens, B.: Social network analysis for customer churn prediction. Appl. Soft Comput. 14, 431–446 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Van den Poel, D., Larivière, B.: Customer attrition analysis for financial services using proportional hazard models. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 157, 196–217 (2004)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  16. Suznjevic, M., Stupar, I., Matijasevic, M.: MMORPG Player Behavior Model based on Player Action Categories. IEEE (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  17. Burez, J., Van den Poel, D.: Handling class imbalance in customer churn prediction. Expert Syst. Appl. 36, 4626–4636 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Archambault, D., Hurley, N., Tu, C.T.: ChurnVis: Visualizing mobile telecommunications churn on a social network with attributes, 894–901

    Google Scholar 

  19. Bolton, R.N.: A Dynamic Model of the Duration of the Customer’s Relationship with a Continuous Service Provider: The Role of Satisfaction. Mark. Sci. 17, 45–65 (1998)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Kim, M.-K., Park, M.-C., Jeong, D.-H.: The effects of customer satisfaction and switching barrier on customer loyalty in Korean mobile telecommunication services. Telecomm. Policy 28, 145–159 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Ahn, J.-H., Han, S.-P., Lee, Y.-S.: Customer churn analysis: Churn determinants and mediation effects of partial defection in the Korean mobile telecommunications service industry. Telecomm. Policy 30, 552–568 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Shaaban, E., Helmy, Y., Khedr, A., Nasr, M.: A Proposed Churn Prediction Model. Int. J. Eng. Res. Appl. 2, 693–697 (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  23. Qureshi, S.A., Rehman, A.S., Qamar, A.M., Kamal, A., Rehman, A.: Telecommunication subscribers’ churn prediction model using machine learning. In: Eighth International Conference on Digital Information Management (ICDIM 2013), pp. 131–136. IEEE (2013)

    Google Scholar 

  24. Abbasimehr, H.: A Neuro-Fuzzy Classifier for Customer Churn Prediction. Int. J. Comput. Appl. 19, 35–41 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  25. Farquad, M.A.H., Ravi, V., Raju, S.B.: Churn prediction using comprehensible support vector machine: An analytical CRM application. Appl. Soft Comput. 19, 31–40 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Mozer, M.C., Wolniewicz, R., Grimes, D.B., Johnson, E., Kaushansky, H.: Predicting subscriber dissatisfaction and improving retention in the wireless telecommunications industry. IEEE Trans. Neural Netw. 11, 690–696 (2000)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Pawlak, Z.: Rough Sets, Rough Relations and Rough Functions. Fundamenta Informaticae 27(2-3) (1996), http://iospress.metapress.com/content/vr21hm11p17k3uh0/

  28. Pawlak, Z.: Rough sets. Int. J. Comput. Inf. Sci. 11, 341–356 (1982)

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  29. Nguyen, S.H., Nguyen, H.S.: Analysis of STULONG Data by Rough Set Exploration System ( RSES ). In: Proc. ECML/PKDD Work, pp. 71–82 (2003)

    Google Scholar 

  30. Bazan, J.G., Nguyen, H.S., Nguyen, S.H., Synak, P., Wróblewski, J.: Rough set algorithms in classification problem, pp. 49–88 (2000)

    Google Scholar 

  31. Wróblewski, J.: Genetic Algorithms in Decomposition and Classification Problems. Rough Sets Knowl. Discov. 2(19), 471–487 (1998)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Grzymala-Busse, J.W.: A New Version of the Rule Induction System LERS. Fundam. Informaticae 31, 27–39 (1997)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  33. Bazan, J., Szczuka, M.S.: The Rough Set Exploration System. In: Peters, J.F., Skowron, A. (eds.) Transactions on Rough Sets III. LNCS, vol. 3400, pp. 37–56. Springer, Heidelberg (2005)

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  34. Khan, S., Madden, M.: One-class classification: taxonomy of study and review of techniques. Knowl. Eng. Rev. 29, 345–374 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Tax, D.M.J.: One-Class Classification, Concept Learning in the Absence of Counter Examples. Ph.D. Thesis, Delft Univ. Technol. Delft, Netherl. (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  36. Khan, M.A., Jan, Z., Ishtiaq, M., Asif Khan, M., Mirza, A.M.: Selection of Accurate and Robust Classification Model for Binary Classification Problems. Signal Process. Image Process. Pattern Recognit. 61, 161–168 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Tax, D.M.J., Duin, R.P.W.: Uniform object generation for optimizing one-class classifiers. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 2, 155–173 (2002)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  38. Amin, A., Shehzad, S., Khan, C., Ali, I., Anwar, S.: Churn Prediction in Telecommunication Industry Using Rough Set Approach. In: Camacho, D., Kim, S.-W., Trawiński, B. (eds.) New Research in Multimedia and Internet Systems. SCI, vol. 572, pp. 83–96. Springer, Heidelberg (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  39. Lee, K.C., Chung, N., Shin, K.: An artificial intelligence-based data mining approach to extracting strategies for reducing the churning rate in credit card industry. J. Intell. Inf. Syst. 8, 15–35 (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  40. Vandecruys, O., Martens, D., Baesens, B., Mues, C., De Backer, M., Haesen, R.: Mining software repositories for comprehensible software fault prediction models. J. Syst. Softw. 81, 823–839 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Dataset Source, http://www.sgi.com/tech/mlc/db/

  42. Holmes, G., Donkin, A., Witten, I.H.: WEKA: a machine learning workbench. In: Proceedings of ANZIIS 1994 - Australian New Zealnd Intelligent Information Systems Conference, pp. 357–361. IEEE (1994)

    Google Scholar 

  43. Novakovic, J.: Using Information Gain Attribute Evaluation to Classify Sonar Targets. In: 17th Telecommun. forum TELFOR, pp. 1351–1354 (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  44. He, F., Wang, X., Liu, B.: Attack Detection by Rough Set Theory in Recommendation System. In: 2010 IEEE International Conference on Granular Computing, pp. 692–695. IEEE (2010)

    Google Scholar 

  45. Bellazzi, R., Zupan, B.: Predictive data mining in clinical medicine: current issues and guidelines. Int. J. Med. Inform. 77, 81–97 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this paper

Cite this paper

Amin, A., Khan, C., Ali, I., Anwar, S. (2014). Customer Churn Prediction in Telecommunication Industry: With and without Counter-Example. In: Gelbukh, A., Espinoza, F.C., Galicia-Haro, S.N. (eds) Nature-Inspired Computation and Machine Learning. MICAI 2014. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 8857. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-13650-9_19

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-13650-9_19

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-13649-3

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-13650-9

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics