Abstract
Making decisions involves prediction of future outcomes. In the real world, however, predictions are not known with certainty. Moreover, in serious problems multiple criteria must be taken into account. Various techniques for multicriteria decision-making problems under risk are proposed. Most of them assume that the decision process can be reduced to a single act of choice. However, real-world decision problems are often dynamic, which means that a series of choices must be made. In the paper, a new technique for a dynamic multicriteria decision-making problem under risk is proposed. The method uses a decision tree and interactive approach. A real-world example is presented to show applicability of the procedure.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Chiu, L., Gear, T.E.: An application and case history of a dynamic R&D Portfolio selection model. IEEE Trans. Eng. Manage. 26, 2–7 (1979)
Corner, J.L., Kirkwood, C.W.: Decision analysis applications in the operations research literature. 1970–1989. Oper. Res. 39, 206–219 (1991)
Covaliu, Z., Oliver, R.M.: Representation and solution of decision problems using sequential decision diagrams. Manage. Sci. 41, 1860–1881 (1995)
Frini, A., Guitouni, A., Martel, J.M.: A general decomposition approach for multi-criteria decision trees. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 220, 452–460 (2012)
Frohwein, H.I., Haimes, Y.Y., Lambert, J.H.: Risk of extreme events in multiobjective decision trees. Part 2: Rare events. Risk Anal. 20, 125–134 (2000)
Frohwein, H.I., Lambert, J.H.: Risk of extreme events in multiobjective decision trees. Part 1: Severe events. Risk Anal. 20, 113–123 (2000)
Granot, D., Zuckerman, D.: Optimal sequencing and resource allocation in research and development projects. Manage. Sci. 37, 140–156 (1991)
Haimes, Y., Li, D., Tulsiani, V.: Multiobjective decision tree method. Risk Anal. 10, 111–129 (1990)
Hess, S.W.: Swinging on the branch of a tree: project selection applications. Interfaces 23, 5–12 (1993)
Keeney, R.L., Raiffa, H.: Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs. Wiley, New York (1976)
Kirkwood, C.W.: An algebraic approach to formulating and solving large models for sequential decisions under uncertainty. Manage. Sci. 39, 900–913 (1993)
Korhonen, P.: Interactive methods. In: Figueira, J., Greco, S., Ehrgott, M. (eds.) Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: State of the Art Surveys, pp. 641–665. Springer, Heidelberg (2005)
Li, D.: Multiple objectives and non-separability in stochastic dynamic programming. Int. J. Syst. Sci. 21, 933–950 (1990)
Lootsma, F.A.: Multicriteria decision analysis in a decision tree. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 101, 442–451 (1997)
Nowak, M.: INSDECM—an interactive procedure for discrete stochastic multicriteria decision making problems. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 175, 1413–1430 (2006)
Nowak, M.: An interactive procedure for multiple criteria decision tree. In: Skulimowski A. (ed.) Looking into the Future of Creativity and Decision Support Systems. Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Knowledge, Information and Creativity Support Systems. Progress and Business Publishers, Kraków, pp. 461–472 (2013)
Nowak, B., Nowak, M.: Multicriteria decision aiding in project planning using decision tree and simulation. In: Trzaskalik, T., Wachowicz, T. (eds.) Multiple Criteria Decision Making ‘10-11, pp. 163–187. University of Economics Press, Katowice (2011)
Skulimowski, A.: Anticipatory network models of multicriteria decision-making processes. Int. J. Sys. Sci. 45, 39–59 (2014)
Stonebraker, J.S., Kirkwood, C.W.: Formulating and solving sequential decision analysis models with continuous variables. IEEE Trans. Eng. Manage. 44, 43–53 (1997)
Thomas, H.: Decision analysis and strategic management of research and development: a comparison between applications in electronics and ethical pharmaceuticals. R&D Manage. 15, 3–22 (1985)
Von Winterfeld, D., Edwards, W.: Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1986)
Acknowledgments
This research was supported by the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education in years 2010–2013 as a research project no NN 111 267,138.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2016 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
About this paper
Cite this paper
Nowak, M. (2016). Solving a Multicriteria Decision Tree Problem Using Interactive Approach. In: Skulimowski, A., Kacprzyk, J. (eds) Knowledge, Information and Creativity Support Systems: Recent Trends, Advances and Solutions. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 364. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19090-7_23
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19090-7_23
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-19089-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-19090-7
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)