Skip to main content

Modeling the EUR/USD Index Using LS-SVM and Performing Variable Selection

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Advances in Computational Intelligence (IWANN 2015)

Abstract

As machine learning becomes more popular in all fields, its use is well known in finance and economics. The growing number of people using models to predict the market’s behaviour can modify the market itself so it is more predictable. In this context, the key element is to find out which variables are used to build the model in a macroeconomic environment. This paper presents an application of kernel methods to predict the EUR/USD relationship performing variable selection. The results show how after applying a proper variable selection, very accurate predictions can be achieved and smaller historical data is needed to train the model.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. An, S., Liu, W., Venkatesh, S.: Fast cross-validation algorithms for least squares support vector machine and kernel ridge regression. Pattern Recogn. 40(8), 2154–2162 (2007)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  2. Ettredge, M., Gerdes Jr., J., Karuga, G.G.: Using web-based search data to predict macroeconomic statistics. Commun. ACM 48(11), 87–92 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. François, D., Rossi, F., Wertz, V., Verleysen, M.: Resampling methods for parameter-free and robust feature selection with mutual information. CoRR, abs/0709.3640 (2007)

    Google Scholar 

  4. Herrera, L.J., Pomares, H., Rojas, I., Verleysen, M., Guilén, A.: Effective input variable selection for function approximation. In: Kollias, S.D., Stafylopatis, A., Duch, W., Oja, E. (eds.) ICANN 2006. LNCS, vol. 4131, pp. 41–50. Springer, Heidelberg (2006)

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  5. Koller, D., Sahami, M.: Toward optimal feature selection. In: Saitta, L. (ed.) Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pp. 284–292. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers (1996)

    Google Scholar 

  6. Kraskov, A., Stogbauer, H., Grassberger, P.: Estimating mutual information. Phys. Rev. E 69, 066138 (2004)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  7. Martinsen, K., Ravazzolo, F., Wulfsberg, F.: Forecasting macroeconomic variables using disaggregate survey data. International Journal of Forecasting 30(1), 65–77 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Rossi, F., Lendasse, A., Franois, D., Wertz, V., Verleysen, M.: Mutual information for the selection of relevant variables in spectrometric nonlinear modelling. Chem. and Int. Lab. Syst. 80, 215–226 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Saunders, C., Gammerman, A., Vovk, V.: Ridge regression learning algorithm in dual variables. In: Proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 515–521. Morgan Kaufmann (1998)

    Google Scholar 

  10. Suykens, J.A.K., Van Gestel, T., De Brabanter, J., De Moor, J., Vandewalle, B.: Least Squares Support Vector Machines. World Scientific, Singapore (2002)

    Book  MATH  Google Scholar 

  11. Del Mar Perez, M., Val, J., Negueruela, I., Lafuente, V., Herrera, L.J.: Firmness prediction in prunus persica calrico peaches by visible/short-wave near infrared spectroscopy and acoustic measurements using optimised linear and non-linear chemometric models. J. Sci. Food Agric., 15, September 2014

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Luis-Javier Herrera .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2015 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this paper

Cite this paper

Herrera, LJ. et al. (2015). Modeling the EUR/USD Index Using LS-SVM and Performing Variable Selection. In: Rojas, I., Joya, G., Catala, A. (eds) Advances in Computational Intelligence. IWANN 2015. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 9095. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19222-2_14

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19222-2_14

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-19221-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-19222-2

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics