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Welfare Measurement on Thai Rice Market: A Markov Switching Bayesian Seemingly Unrelated Regression

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Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making (IUKM 2015)

Abstract

This paper aimed to measure the welfare of the Thai rice market and provided a new estimation in welfare measurement. We applied the Markov Switching approach to the Seemingly Unrelated Regression model and adopted the Bayesian approach as an estimator for our model. Thus, we have the MS-BSUR model as an innovative tool to measure the welfare. The results showed that the model performed very well in estimating the demand and supply equations of two different regimes; namely, high growth and low growth. The equations were extended to compute the total welfare. Then, the expected welfare during the studied period was determined. We found that a mortgage scheme may lead the market to gain a high level of welfare. Eventually, the forecasts of demand and supply were estimated for 10 months, and we found demand and supply would tend to increase in the next few months before dropping around March, 2015.

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Correspondence to Pathairat Pastpipatkul .

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Pastpipatkul, P., Maneejuk, P., Sriboonchitta, S. (2015). Welfare Measurement on Thai Rice Market: A Markov Switching Bayesian Seemingly Unrelated Regression. In: Huynh, VN., Inuiguchi, M., Demoeux, T. (eds) Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making. IUKM 2015. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 9376. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-25135-6_42

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-25135-6_42

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-25134-9

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-25135-6

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