Abstract
This paper aims at investigating the performance of state-of-the-art Data Mining techniques in identifying important firm-specific determinants of dividend changes. Since announcements of dividend changes are said to be informative and likely to affect stock prices, an accurate prediction of dividend changes is of vital interest. Therefore, we compare Data Mining techniques like Classification Trees, Random Forests or Support Vector Machines with classical methods like Multinomial Logit or Linear Discriminant Analysis. This comparison is done on data of the dividend payout of German Prime Standard Issuers during the years 2007–2010, as in this phase of financial turmoil many dividend changes can be observed. To our best knowledge this is the first application of Data Mining techniques in this research field concerning the German Stock Market.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Bennett, K. P., & Campbell, C. (2000). Support vector machines: Hype or hallelujah? ACM SIGKDD Explorations Newsletter, 2(2), 1–13.
Bolón-Canedo, V., Sánchez-maroño, N., & Alonso-Betanzos, A. (2013). A review of feature selection methods on synthetic data. Knowledge and Information Systems, 34(3), 483–519.
Dietterich, T. G. (1998). Approximate statistical tests for comparing supervised classification learning algorithms. Neural Computation, 10(7), 1895–1923.
Docking, D. S., & Koch, P. D. (2005). Sensitivity of investor reaction to market direction and volatility: Dividend change announcements. Journal of Financial Research, 28(1), 21–40.
Goergen, M., Renneboog, L., & Da Silva, C. (2005). When do German firms change their dividend? Journal of Corporate Finance, 11(1), 375–399.
Hand, D. J., & Till, R. J. (2001). A simple generalisation of the area under the ROC curve for multiple class classification problems. Machine Learning, 45(2), 171–186.
Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., & Friedman, J. (2009). The elements of statistical learning. New York: Springer.
Mardia, K. V., Kent, J. T., & Bibby, J. M. (1979). Multivariate analysis. New York/London: Academic Press.
Li, W., & Lie, E. (2006). Dividend changes and catering incentives. Journal of Financial Economics, 80(2), 293–308.
Payne, B. C. (2011). On the financial characteristics of firms that initiated new dividends during a period of economic recession and financial market turmoil. Journal of Economics and Finance, 35(2), 149–163.
Strobl, C., Boulesteix, A. L., Zeileis, A., & Hothorn, T. (2007). Bias in random forest variable importance measures: Illustrations, sources and a solution. BMC Bioinformatics, 8(1), 25.
Varian, H. R. (2014). Big data: New tricks for econometrics. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(2), 3–27.
Weihs, C., & Luebke, K. (2009). Prediction optimal classification of business phases. In: A. Wagner (Ed.), Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung heute (pp. 149–156). Stuttgart: Schäffer-Poeschel.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2016 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
About this paper
Cite this paper
Luebke, K., Rojahn, J. (2016). Firm-Specific Determinants on Dividend Changes: Insights from Data Mining. In: Wilhelm, A., Kestler, H. (eds) Analysis of Large and Complex Data. Studies in Classification, Data Analysis, and Knowledge Organization. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-25226-1_29
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-25226-1_29
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-25224-7
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-25226-1
eBook Packages: Mathematics and StatisticsMathematics and Statistics (R0)