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The Art of Anticipatory Decision Making

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Knowledge, Information and Creativity Support Systems

Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ((AISC,volume 416))

Abstract

This paper presents the recent advances of the theory of anticipatory networks and its applications in future-oriented decision-making. Anticipatory networks generalize earlier models of consequence anticipation in multicriteria decision problem solving. This theory is based on the assumption that the decision maker takes into account the anticipated outcomes of future decision problems linked in a prescribed manner by the causal relations with the present problem. Thus arises a multigraph of decision problems linked causally (the first relation) and representing one or more additional anticipation relations. Such multigraphs will be termed anticipatory networks. We will also present the notion of a superanticipatory system, which is an anticipatory system that contains a future model of at least one anticipatory system besides itself. It will be shown that non-trivial anticipatory networks are superanticipatory systems. Finally, we will discuss several real-life applications of anticipatory networks, including an application to establish efficient collaboration of human and robot teams.

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Acknowledgments

The author is grateful for the support of the research project No. WND-POIG.01.01.01-00-021/09:“Scenarios and development trends of selected information society technologies until 2025” funded by the ERDF within the Innovative Economy Operational Programme, 2006–2013.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Decision Science Laboratory, Department of Automatic Control and Biomedical Engineering, AGH University of Science and Technology, al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-050, Kraków, Poland

    Andrzej M. J. Skulimowski

  2. International Centre for Decision Sciences and Forecasting, Progress and Business Foundation, ul. J. Lea 12B, 30-048, Kraków, Poland

    Andrzej M. J. Skulimowski

Authors
  1. Andrzej M. J. Skulimowski
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Correspondence to Andrzej M. J. Skulimowski .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. and Technology, JAIST - Japan Advanced Institute for Sci, Kanazawa, Japan

    Susumu Kunifuji

  2. Dept of Computer Science, University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus

    George Angelos Papadopoulos

  3. Dept. of Automatic Control & Biom. Eng., AGH University of Science and Technology, Kraków, Poland

    Andrzej M.J. Skulimowski

  4. Systems Res Inst, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland

    Janusz Kacprzyk  

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Skulimowski, A.M.J. (2016). The Art of Anticipatory Decision Making. In: Kunifuji, S., Papadopoulos, G., Skulimowski, A., Kacprzyk  , J. (eds) Knowledge, Information and Creativity Support Systems. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 416. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-27478-2_2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-27478-2_2

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-27477-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-27478-2

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