Abstract
This article shows a conformal prediction application to disruption prediction from scratch. Considering data from ILW experimental campaigns (both hydrogen and deuterium campaigns), a one-layer disruption predictor has been tested from scratch. The results show a relevant improvement where the success rate (rate of disruptions predicted correctly) increases and the false alarm rate (rate of non-disruptive discharges misclassified) decreases, using conformal prediction (CP) rather than conventional methodology from scratch. CP from scratch achieves a success rate of \(100\,\%\) with the first model and only one disruptive discharge.
JET Contributors—See the Appendix of F. Romanelli et al., Proceedings of the 25th IAEA Fusion Energy Conference 2014, Saint Petersburg, Russia.
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Acknowledgments
This work was partially funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness under the Project No. ENE2012-38970-C04-01 and Project No. ENE2012-38970-C04-03.
This work has been carried out within the framework of the EUROfusion Consortium and has received funding from the Euratom research and training programme 2014–2018 under grant agreement No. 633053. The views and opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of the European Commission.
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Moreno, R., Vega, J., Dormido, S., JET Contributors. (2016). Conformal Prediction of Disruptions from Scratch: Application to an ITER Scenario. In: Gammerman, A., Luo, Z., Vega, J., Vovk, V. (eds) Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications. COPA 2016. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 9653. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-33395-3_5
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