Keywords

1 Introduction

1.1 Background

Vision and strategy setting for organizations is a core challenge. This involves assessing the organizational direction in the context of upcoming challenges, including short term and longer term ones. Design Thinking addresses the strategic challenge through human centric experience design and solves problems faced in the short term. However, setting vision and strategy in the context of a longer term challenge, involves futuristic thinking. This article reconciles the two and integrates them.

The article first explores the concepts of design thinking and futuristic thinking and compares them. A reconciled Forward Thinking framework is then proposed and explored through a case study example, to provide benefits for organizations.

1.2 Design Thinking

Design thinking is about new ideas. Design Thinking is an effective toolkit for any innovation process, connecting the creative design approach to traditional business thinking, based on planning and problem solving [1]. It integrates human, business, and technological factors in problem forming, solving, and design. Its human-centric methodology integrates expertise from design, social sciences, engineering, and business.

Stanford University Design School [2] outlines a five mode approach to design thinking. (Figs. 1 and 2)

Fig. 1.
figure 1

Design thinking phases [2]

Full size image
Fig. 2.
figure 2

A Forward Thinking framework

Full size image

  • Empathy mode illustrates the human-centered approach to the overall design process and considers the context, including physical, emotional needs, intent, motivations and environmental considerations that surround [2].

  • The goal of the Define mode is to craft a meaningful and actionable problem statement that is formulated through an insightful discovery process [2].

  • Ideate is the mode of the design process in which you concentrate on idea generation and innovative solutions that solve problems for the users [2].

  • The Prototype mode is the iterative generation of artifacts intended to answer questions that get you closer to your final solution [2].

  • The Test mode is when you solicit feedback, about the prototypes you have created, from your users and have another opportunity to gain empathy for the people you are designing for [2].

Design thinking has been heavily used across various domains in industry to produce notable outcomes. Examples: (a) Success of Pepsi Co in using design thinking for improving strategy formulation [3], (b) Kaiser Permanente (a health care organization in the USA) using DT for nursing shift changes to improve patient care [4, 5].

1.3 Futuristic Thinking

While design thinking is focused on identifying problems or requirements at hand, through a human centric approach, futuristic methods aim to predict future in a medium to longer term perspective. Futurology has been defined as the “the scientific study of possible, probable and desirable future developments, the options for shaping them, and their roots in past and present” [6].

According to a futurist practitioner, the future thinking is an iterative process which helps consider a range of possible, probably, and preferable outcomes. It’s not predicting the future, but rather taking a structured approach to understanding the potential impacts of today’s decisions and actions [7]. Scenario Analysis is one of the leading methods of futuristic thinking methods.

Scenario Analysis methods have been used across various domains of industry. For example, statistical modelling of futuristic scenarios is quite common through sophisticated analytical modelling. Climate change modelling done by International Panel on Climate Change [8] is a widely debated example for this.

A scenario can be defined as a description of a possible future situation, including the path of development leading to that situation. These are generally hypothetical and are intended to highlight central elements of a possible future and to draw attention to key factors [9]. Scenarios help to communicate, generate ideas, generate knowledge about past, present and future and aid as a strategy and decision making tool.

A typical scenario analysis technique goes through following phases [9].

  • Identification of the scenario field by establishing the scope of the study.

  • Researchers identify key factors that will have strong influence over how future will unfold.

  • A range of outcomes are then formulated.

  • Based on these a relatively small number of meaningfully distinguishable scenarios are produced

  • Application of the finished scenarios for purposes such as strategy assessment.

Scenarios analysis can be for normative or exploratory. They can be either qualitative or quantitative. Scenarios can be judged by their plausibility, internal consistency, comprehensibility and traceability, distinctness and transparency [9].

1.4 Comparison Between Design Thinking and Futuristic Thinking

While reconciling the two concepts of futuristic scenario analysis and design thinking, one could get a view that both have similar intent and purpose, but for the focus on the tenure. Design Thinking focusses on now and problems at hand. While futuristic scenario analysis is aimed at a longer term view. A normative scenario analysis, where the path to a defined future state is worked through, appears as a close cousin of design thinking. An explorative scenario analysis, on the other hand, is more open ended, the results of which are still used for strategy formulation or decision making.

The Design Thinking methodologies have evolved over time and have incorporated prototyping and testing as phases in the pathway. But, in case of a futuristic scenario analysis technique, due to the uncertainties with timeframes and complexities of predicting future, it may not be possible to prototype and test holistic scenarios. The other difference lies on the emphasis on human centric nature of design thinking. This would need to be incorporated into a normative scenario analysis method.

By its very nature, futuristic scenario analysis focusses on an aero-plane view of the problem and may not necessarily incorporate all factors into consideration.

The Table 1 shows the summary of this reconciliation.

Table 1. Design Thinking and Futuristic thinking comparison
Full size table

2 A Reconciled Framework for Vision, Strategy and Problem Solving

It is proposed that by combining both the futuristic thinking and design thinking methods into a single framework and them working in tandem, it is possible for organizations to formulate vision, strategy and solve problems and address the entire end to end temporal life cycle. Organizations have a fundamental interest in their survival and to be the best amongst its peers. A continuous process of strategy formulation, design and implementation is required to achieve this intent, as shown below.

3 A Case Study: Internet of Things and Its Impacts to Public Sector

The Internet of Things (IoT) is an emerging concept that is intended to connect the unconnected [10]. Theoretically, every object could be connected to the internet, via sensors and small computer modules. These objects will be able to collect information, communicate with services that capture and analyses the data and reach decisions autonomously. Gartner [11] estimates 25 Billion objects connected by 2020.

Number of Iota use cases is already in action in society today. For example, household items such as fridges, security alarms, ovens and lights can be connected to the internet and remote management possible through applications on smart phones.

It is estimated that IoE is poised to generate $4.6 trillion in Value at Stake for the public sector over the next decade (compared with $14.4 trillion for the private sector over the same period) [12].

When a need was recognized to formulate strategic and operational directions on IoT for public sector organizations, a framework was required. The span of IoT vision setting and strategy planning ranged from short term to a much longer period of more than 10 years. Future could be abstracted through Scenario Analysis techniques. However, the short term scenarios require much higher level of concreteness, testing and implementation. Design Thinking was found to be suitable, for the ‘now’ and short-term requirements.

3.1 Forward Thinking Framework

The Forward Thinking framework (Fig. 3) was used to ideate future for short, medium and longer term.

Fig. 3.
figure 3

Forward Thinking framework – with phases

Full size image

The intent of this case study example with IoT, is only to highlight that it is possible to use the Forward Thinking framework for vision setting, strategy formulation for both longer term and short term requirements. The following case study does not go at length into the actual factors considered, scenarios and details of the plan.

Scope.

The implications of Internet of Things to Public Sector organizations have been defined as the scope of this Forward Thinking process.

Key Factors.

A literature review shows that significant work has been completed on various scenarios for public sector agencies by number of commercial organizations. Key factors can be gathered based on these and also qualitative research with Subject Matter Experts.

Outcomes.

The Public sector organizations have been in existence, since governments. The outcomes expected of public sector organizations remain the same. For example, the mission statement of USA Inland Revenue Service (IRS) remained the same for tens of hundreds of years, as below:

“Provide America’s taxpayers top quality service by helping them understand and meet their tax responsibilities and enforce the law with integrity and fairness to all” [13].

This mission is expected to remain the same further into the future, irrespective of IoT and emerging technologies. It was identified that what is important, for IRS, is the contemporary practices are incorporated in achieving this mission statement.

Scenarios.

Various scenarios on implications to public sector administrations were formulated. These were largely categorized into following themes.

  • Improvements in internal administration of revenue collection

    • Smart Cars

    • Smart buildings

    • Smart Computers

  • Improvements to service delivery for public sector clients

    • Fully Automated End to End Interactions for tax and transfer systems

    • Customized Interactions using Big Data Analytics

  • Legal implications

    • Law Implications due to IoT and Big Data

    • Privacy and Security Implications for citizens

  • Need for client engagement and compliance mechanisms.

    • Data collection using sensors for various government services

    • Proactive engagement through Big Data Analytics

    • Compliance and Law enforcement through Big Data Analytics

  • Need for a Technology platform for Internet of Things connectivity

Example scenarios from best practices in other places were included. These best-practices evidences from elsewhere and hence could only be considered for the short-term. Some scenarios considered were as follows:

  • South Korea has embarked on a broad program to introduce and lead the world in embedded RFID and USN (ubiquitous sensor network) in manufactured goods [14]

  • The company 3 M is marketing a blue tooth enabled digital stethoscope, allow applications to view the heart movement signal and introducing the ability to record, store, manage and analyses an individual’s heart beat and compare and pattern match against the other stored heart beats [15].

These sorts of scenarios help the Design team, to look at forwarding scenarios for the public sector.

Strategy Assessment.

As part of the strategy assessment process, each of the scenarios were prioritized into specific usable scenarios and prioritized with a tenure (short, medium to long term). For example, based on literature review and expert interviews, the customized interactions using technology platform for IoT, big data analytics and smart buildings were identified as short term scenarios that could be implemented and design process initiated for them.

Design Process.

The design process is proposed for short-term scope items, with specific goals created for each of the Agile Program Epics (Epics are large, Program like initiatives that provide business benefits [16]). For example, smart buildings and a Proof of Concept for IoT Technology platform were identified as Epics, to provide benefit to the organization at the same time prepare for the ongoing vision achievement.

Empathise.

The human centric nature of the design experience and empathizing with client is a step that would need to happen throughout the design process.

Define.

Based on the SAFe framework [16], the outcomes for Program Epics are defined in this phase. The Smart buildings outcomes and IoT Technology Platforms are intended to be defined as Epics at this stage and detailed Agile Release Trains (ART) could be initiated. Features and relevant user stories could be developed for these Epics, as requirements are much more clear for these Epics.

Ideate.

A human centric design ideate phase, that looks at the core requirements to come up with ideas and user stories that can be implemented as a prototype is planned at this phase.

Prototype.

Prototypes for Smart building ideas and IoT Technology platform Proof of Concept (PoC) are to be developed in this stage.

Test.

Testing and validation of the prototype occurs for the identified user-stories. The ultimate aim of the testing is to test whether the original intended outcome is reached.

4 Limitations

While the framework was ideated out of necessity, for understanding the implications of IoT in different temporal life cycles, the framework is still speculative in nature. Full testing of the entire lifecycle needs to be performed to confirm benefits. The framework is a conceptual stage framework only and details require to be enhanced with more guidelines, templates and further testing.

5 Conclusion

This paper presented an over-arching framework based on forward thinking, incorporating Futuristic Thinking, Design Thinking and Implementation (either Agile or Waterfall) concepts in the context of long term potential domain/industry disruptor. This framework contributes to the overall Strategic Planning and Implementation lifecycles of organizations and associated literature.