Skip to main content

Predicting Video Virality on Twitter

  • Chapter
  • First Online:

Part of the book series: Computer Communications and Networks ((CCN))

Abstract

Our work merges user-centric data from Twitter with video-centric data from YouTube to investigate the ties between predictability of video sharing and the social context of video uploaders. It provides a combination of social media datasets, giving insights than neither dataset (social network and media service) individually gives. We develop an accurate model to predict future popularity of a video resource given features of the underlying network of its initial sharer. The set of features we propose and analyze are based on the notion of influence score of a user and its fluctuation through time, as well as the distance of content interests among users for both datasets. We discover that the latter feature plays an important role in video popularity prediction, suggesting high dependence of video sharing via Twitter on the video content itself. We proceed to incorporate our prediction model into a mechanism for content delivery, achieving substantial improvement of the user experience.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD   169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Abisheva, A., Garimella, V.R.K., Garcia, D., Weber, I.: Who watches (and shares) what on YouTube? And when?: Using Twitter to understand Youtube viewership. IN: Proceedings of the 7th ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining, WSDM 2014, New York, NY, USA, 24–28 Feb 2014, pp. 593–602 (2014). doi:10.1145/2556195.2566588

  2. Bakshy, E., Hofman, J.M., Mason, W.A., Watts, D.J.: Everyone’s an influencer: quantifying influence on Twitter. In: Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Web Search and Web Data Mining, WSDM 2011, Hong Kong, China, 9–12 Feb 2011, pp. 65–74 (2011). doi:10.1145/1935826.1935845

  3. Brodersen, A., Scellato, S., Wattenhofer, M.: YouTube around the world: geographic popularity of videos. In: Proceedings of the 21st World Wide Web Conference, WWW 2012, Lyon, France, 16–20 April 2012, pp. 241–250 (2012). doi:10.1145/2187836.2187870

  4. Cha, M., Kwak, H., Rodriguez, P., Ahn, Y., Moon, S.B.: I tube, you tube, everybody tubes: analyzing the world’s largest user generated content video system. In: Proceedings of the 7th ACM SIGCOMM Conference on Internet Measurement, IMC 2007, San Diego, California, USA, 24–26 Oct 2007, pp. 1–14 (2007). doi:10.1145/1298306.1298309

  5. Cheng, J., Adamic, L.A., Dow, P.A., Kleinberg, J.M., Leskovec, J.: Can cascades be predicted? In: Proceedings of the 23rd International World Wide Web Conference, WWW 2014, Seoul, Republic of Korea, 7–11 April 2014, pp. 925–936 (2014). doi:10.1145/2566486.2567997

  6. Dow, P.A., Adamic, L.A., Friggeri, A.: The anatomy of large Facebook cascades. In: Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Weblogs and Social Media, ICWSM 2013, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA, 8–11 July 2013

    Google Scholar 

  7. Galuba, W., Aberer, K., Chakraborty, D., Despotovic, Z., Kellerer, W.: Outtweeting the Twitterers—Predicting Information Cascades in Microblogs. In: Proceedings of the 3rd Workshop on Online Social Networks, WOSN 2010, Boston, MA, USA, 22 June 2010

    Google Scholar 

  8. Hong, L., Dan, O., Davison, B.D.: Predicting popular messages in Twitter. In: Proceedings of the 20th International Conference on World Wide Web, WWW 2011, Hyderabad, India, March 28–April 1, 2011 (Companion Volume), pp. 57–58 (2011). doi:10.1145/1963192.1963222

  9. Jenders, M., Kasneci, G., Naumann, F.: Analyzing and predicting viral tweets. In: Proceedings of the 22nd International World Wide Web Conference, WWW 2013, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 13–17 May 2013, Companion Volume, pp. 657–664 (2013)

    Google Scholar 

  10. Kilanioti, I.: Improving multimedia content delivery via augmentation with social information. The Social Prefetcher approach. IEEE Trans. Multimedia 17(9), 1460–1470 (2015). doi:10.1109/TMM.2015.2459658

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Kilanioti, I., Papadopoulos, G.A.: Socially-aware multimedia content delivery for the cloud. In: Proceedings of the 8th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Utility and Cloud Computing, UCC 2015, Limassol, Cyprus, 7–10 Dec 2015, pp. 300–309 (2015). doi:10.1109/UCC.2015.48

  12. Kupavskii, A., Ostroumova, L., Umnov, A., Usachev, S., Serdyukov, P., Gusev, G., Kustarev, A.: Prediction of retweet cascade size over time. In: Proceedings of the 21st ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management, CIKM 2012, Maui, HI, USA, October 29–November 02, 2012, pp. 2335–2338 (2012). doi:10.1145/2396761.2398634

  13. Kwak, H., Lee, C., Park, H., Moon, S.B.: What is Twitter, a social network or a news media? In: Proceedings of the 19th International Conference on World Wide Web, WWW 2010, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA, 26–30 April 2010, pp. 591–600 (2010). doi:10.1145/1772690.1772751

  14. Ma, Z., Sun, A., Cong, G.: On predicting the popularity of newly emerging hashtags in Twitter. JASIST 64(7), 1399–1410 (2013). doi:10.1002/asi.22844

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Petrovic, S., Osborne, M., Lavrenko, V.: RT to win! Predicting message propagation in Twitter. In: Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Weblogs and Social Media, ICWSM 2011, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain, 17–21 July 2011

    Google Scholar 

  16. Rodrigues, T., Benevenuto, F., Cha, M., Gummadi, P.K., Almeida, V.A.F.: On word-of-mouth based discovery of the web. In: Proceedings of the 11th ACM SIGCOMM Conference on Internet Measurement, IMC 2011, Berlin, Germany, 2–4 Nov 2011, pp. 381–396 (2011). doi:10.1145/2068816.2068852

  17. Suh, B., Hong, L., Pirolli, P., Chi, E.H.: Want to be retweeted? Large scale analytics on factors impacting retweet in Twitter network. In: Proceedings of the 2nd IEEE International Conference on Social Computing, SocialCom / IEEE International Conference on Privacy, Security, Risk and Trust, PASSAT 2010, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA, 20–22 Aug 2010, pp. 177–184 (2010). doi:10.1109/SocialCom.2010.33

  18. Szabó, G., Huberman, B.A.: Predicting the popularity of online content. Commun. ACM 53(8), 80–88 (2010). doi:10.1145/1787234.1787254

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Tsur, O., Rappoport, A.: What’s in a hashtag? Content based prediction of the spread of ideas in microblogging communities. In: Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Web Search and Web Data Mining, WSDM 2012, Seattle, WA, USA, 8–12 Feb 2012, pp. 643–652 (2012). doi:10.1145/2124295.2124320

  20. Yang, J., Leskovec, J.: Patterns of temporal variation in online media. In: Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Web Search and Web Data Mining, WSDM 2011, Hong Kong, China, 9–12 Feb 2011, pp. 177–186 (2011). doi:10.1145/1935826.1935863

  21. Yang, S., Zha, H.: Mixture of mutually exciting processes for viral diffusion. In: Proceedings of the 30th International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2013, Atlanta, GA, USA, 16–21 June 2013, pp. 1–9 (2013)

    Google Scholar 

  22. Zaman, T.R., Herbrich, R., Van Gael, J., Stern, D.: Predicting information spreading in Twitter. In: Proceedings of the Workshop on Computational Social Science and the Wisdom of Crowds, Nips, vol. 104, pp. 17, 599–601 (2010)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Irene Kilanioti or George A. Papadopoulos .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2016 Springer International Publishing AG

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Kilanioti, I., Papadopoulos, G.A. (2016). Predicting Video Virality on Twitter. In: Pop, F., Kołodziej, J., Di Martino, B. (eds) Resource Management for Big Data Platforms. Computer Communications and Networks. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-44881-7_20

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-44881-7_20

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-44880-0

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-44881-7

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics