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A Calibration to Properly Design a Model Integrating Residential Mobility and Migration in a Rural Area

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Advances in Social Simulation 2015

Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ((AISC,volume 528))

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Abstract

We propose a hybrid microsimulation and agent-based model of mobility integrating migration and residential mobility. We tested it on the evolution of the population of the Cantal, a French “département” with 150,000 inhabitants. We calibrated it using various data sources from 1990 to 2006, and tested its predictions on other data of the same period and on the period 2007–2012. The spatial heterogeneity of the evolution is well reproduced and the model makes surprisingly correct predictions despite numerous simplifying assumptions. From this calibration we learnt more about how to model residential mobility and migration considering an agent-based model approach.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Eurostat defines the NUTS (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) classification as a hierarchical system for dividing up the EU territory: NUTS 1 for the major socio-economic regions; NUTS 2 for the basic regions for the application of regional policies; NUTS 3 as small regions for specific diagnoses; LAU (Local Administrative Units 1 and 2) has been added more recently to allow local-level statistics.

  2. 2.

    Consists of municipalities or equivalent units.

  3. 3.

    A nuclear family corresponds to the parents and the children; that is a reductive definition of the family corresponding to the most common one in Europe nowadays.

  4. 4.

    A complex household is a household which is not a single, a couple with or without children.

  5. 5.

    The distance definition depends on the parameterization of the model.

  6. 6.

    French Institute of Statistics and Economical Studies

  7. 7.

    The total fertility rate (TFR), sometimes also called the fertility rate of a population is the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if: (1) she were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates through her lifetime, and; (2) she were to survive from birth through the end of her reproductive life. It is obtained by summing the single-year age-specific rates at a given time. This computation is equivalent to give an identical weight to each age range, whatever their real weight in the population. It suppresses the structural effect linked to the distribution by age ranges of women in age to procreate.

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Acknowledgements

This work has been funded by the PRIMA (Prototypical policy impacts on multifunctional activities in rural municipalities) collaborative project, EU 7th Framework Programme (ENV 2007-1), contract no. 212345. We also thank for data and tools: (1) Maurice Halbwachs (www.cmh.ens.fr/); (2) Irstea, DTM, Grenoble (siddt.grenoble.cemagref.fr/).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Irstea, UR LISC Laboratoire d’ingénierie des systèmes complexes, 9 Avenue Blaise Pascal, Aubière, 63178, France

    Sylvie Huet, Nicolas Dumoulin & Guillaume Deffuant

Authors
  1. Sylvie Huet
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  2. Nicolas Dumoulin
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  3. Guillaume Deffuant
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Sylvie Huet .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. University College Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands

    Wander Jager

  2. Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institute of Artificial Intelligence, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands

    Rineke Verbrugge

  3. Faculty for Social and Behavioural Sciences, Department of Sociology, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands

    Andreas Flache

  4. Faculty of Spatial Sciences, Department of Spatial Planning and Environment, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands

    Gert de Roo

  5. Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands

    Lex Hoogduin

  6. Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Department of Behavioural Ecology and Self-organisation, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands

    Charlotte Hemelrijk

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Huet, S., Dumoulin, N., Deffuant, G. (2017). A Calibration to Properly Design a Model Integrating Residential Mobility and Migration in a Rural Area. In: Jager, W., Verbrugge, R., Flache, A., de Roo, G., Hoogduin, L., Hemelrijk, C. (eds) Advances in Social Simulation 2015. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 528. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-47253-9_14

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-47253-9_14

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-47252-2

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-47253-9

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