Abstract
A perception-based portfolio model under uncertainty is presented. In the proposed model, randomness and fuzziness are evaluated respectively by probabilistic expectation and the mean values with evaluation weights and \(\lambda \)-mean functions. Introducing average value-at-risks under conditions, this paper formulates average value-at-risks in dynamic stochastic environment. By dynamic programming approach, an optimality condition of the optimal portfolios for dynamic average value-at-risks is derived. It is shown that the optimal average value-at-risk is a solution of the optimality equation under a reasonable assumption, and an optimal portfolio weight is obtained from the equation.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
References
L.El Chaoui, M.Oks and F.Oustry, Worst-case value at risk and robust portfolio optimization: A conic programming approach, Operations Research, 51:543–556, 2003.
López-DÃaz, M., Gil, M.A., Ralescu, D.A.: Overview on the Development of Fuzzy Random Variables. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 147 (2006) 2546–2557.
P. Fortemps and M. Roubens, Ranking and defuzzification methods based on area compensation, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 82:319–330, 1996.
Kruse, R., Meyer, K.D.: Statistics with Vague Data. Riedel Publ. Co., Dortrecht (1987).
H.Kwakernaak, Fuzzy random variables – I. Definitions and theorem, Inform. Sci., 15:1–29, 1978.
H.Markowitz, Mean-Variance Analysis in Portfolio Choice and Capital Markets, Blackwell, Oxford, 1990.
S.R.Pliska, Introduction to Mathematical Finance: Discrete-Time Models, Blackwell Publ., New York, 1997.
M.L.Puri and D.A.Ralescu, Fuzzy random variables, J. Math. Anal. Appl., 114:409–422, 1986.
Y.Yoshida, Mean values, measurement of fuzziness and variance of fuzzy random variables for fuzzy optimization, Proceedings of SCIS & ISIS 2006, 2277–2282, Sept. 2006.
Y.Yoshida, A risk-minimizing model under uncertainty in portfolio, in: V.Torra et al. eds., MDAI 2007, LNAI 4529, 295–306, Springer, August, 2007.
Y.Yoshida, Fuzzy extension of estimations with randomness: The perception-based approach, in: P.Melin et al. eds., IFSA2007, LNAI 4617, 381–391, Springer, Sept., 2007.
Y.Yoshida, An estimation model of value-at-risk portfolio under uncertainty, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 160:3250–3262, 2009.
Y.Yoshida, A perception-based portfolio under uncertainty: Minimization of average rates of falling, in: V.Torra, Y.Narukawa and M.Inuiguchi, eds., MDAI 2009, LNAI 5861, 149–160, Springer, Nov., 2009.
Y.Yoshida, A dynamic value-at-risk portfolio model, in: V.Torra, Y.Narukawa, J.Yin and J.Long eds., MDAI 2011, LNAI 6820, 43–24, Springer, Jul., 2011.
Y.Yoshida, An average value-at-risk portfolio model under uncertainty: A perception-based approach by fuzzy random variables, Journal of Advanced Computational Intelligence and Intelligent Informatics, 15:56–62, 2011.
Y.Yoshida, An ordered weighted average with a truncation weight on intervals, in: V.Torra, Y.Narukawa B.López and M.Villaret eds., MDAI 2012, LNAI 7647, 45–55, Springer, Nov., 2012.
Y.Yoshida, Aggregation of Dynamic Risk Measures in Financial Management, in: V.Torra and Y.Narukawa eds., MDAI 2012, LNAI 8825, 38–49, Springer, Oct., 2014.
L.A.Zadeh, Fuzzy sets, Inform. and Control, 8:338–353, 1965.
Acknowledgements
This research is supported from JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP 16K05282.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2017 Springer International Publishing AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Yoshida, Y. (2017). A Dynamic Average Value-at-Risk Portfolio Model with Fuzzy Random Variables. In: Torra, V., Dahlbom, A., Narukawa, Y. (eds) Fuzzy Sets, Rough Sets, Multisets and Clustering. Studies in Computational Intelligence, vol 671. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-47557-8_17
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-47557-8_17
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-47556-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-47557-8
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)