Skip to main content

Pair Trading Rule with Switching Regression GARCH Model

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making (IUKM 2016)

Abstract

Pairs trading strategy is a famous strategy and commonly taken by many investors. There are various approaches to define the pairs trading signal which is the important part of the strategy. This study aims to propose an alternative approach, Markov Switching Regression GARCH model, to specify the trading signal for stock pair taking into account the structural change in the pair return. We applied our proposed model to the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the result shows our pairs trading strategy is relatively more effective for financial investment management compared with the single mean return from individual stock method.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Bauwens, L., Preminger, A., Rombouts, J.V.: Theory and inference for a Markov switching GARCH model. Econometrics J. 13(2), 218–244 (2010)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  2. Bollerslev, T.: Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. J. Econometrics 31(3), 307–327 (1986)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  3. Bock, M., Mestel, R.: A regime-switching relative value arbitrage rule. In: Fleischmann, B., Borgwardt, K.-H., Klein, R., Tuma, A. (eds.) Operations Research Proceedings 2008, pp. 9–14. Springer, Heidelberg (2009)

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  4. Chiu, M.C., Wong, H.Y.: Dynamic cointegrated pairs trading: meanvariance time-consistent strategies. J. Comput. Appl. Math. 290, 516–534 (2015)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  5. Do, B., Faff, R., Hamza, K.: A new approach to modeling and estimation for pairs trading. In: Proceedings of 2006 Financial Management Association European Conference, pp. 87–99 (2006)

    Google Scholar 

  6. Chen, C.W.S., Chen, M., Chen, S.-Y.: Pairs trading via three-regime threshold autoregressive GARCH models. In: Huynh, V.-N., Kreinovich, V., Sriboonchitta, S. (eds.) Modeling Dependence in Econometrics. AISC, vol. 251, pp. 127–140. Springer, Heidelberg (2014). doi:10.1007/978-3-319-03395-2_8

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  7. Elliott, R.J., Van Der Hoek, J., Malcolm, W.P.: Pairs trading. Quant. Financ. 5(3), 271–276 (2005)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  8. Hamilton, J.D.: A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384 (1989)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  9. Hamilton, J.D.: Time Series Analysis. Princeton University Press, Princeton (1994)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  10. Haas, M., Mittnik, S., Paolella, M.S.: A new approach to Markov-switching GARCH models. J. Financ. Econometrics 2(4), 493–530 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Kuan, C.M.: Lecture on the markov switching model. Inst. Econ. Acad. Sinica, 1–30 (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  12. Marcucci, J.: Forecasting stock market volatility with regime-switching GARCH models. Stud. Nonlinear Dyn. Econometrics 9(4), 1–55 (2005)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  13. Perlin, M.: MS-Regress-the MATLAB package for Markov regime switching models. SSRN 1714016 (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  14. Gatev, E., Goetzmann, W.N., Rouwenhorst, K.G.: Pairs trading: performance of a relative-value arbitrage rule. Rev. Financ. Stud. 19(3), 797–827 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Karimalis, E.N., Nomikos, N.: Measuring: systemic risk in the European banking sector: a copula CoVaR approach. Working paper, Cass City College, London (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  16. Miao, G.J.: High frequency and dynamic pairs trading based on statistical arbitrage using a two-stage correlation and cointegration approach. Int. J. Econ. Financ. 6(3), 96 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Pastpipatkul, P., Yamaka, W., Sriboonchitta, S.: Analyzing financial risk and co-movement of Gold market, and Indonesian, Philippine, and Thailand stock markets: dynamic copula with Markov-switching. In: Huynh, V.-N., Kreinovich, V., Sriboonchitta, S. (eds.) Causal Inference in Econometrics. SCI, vol. 622, pp. 565–586. Springer, Heidelberg (2016). doi:10.1007/978-3-319-27284-9_37

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  18. Tfoli, P.V., Ziegelmann, F.A., Silva Filho, O.C.: A comparison study of copula models for European financial index returns. In: 34 Meeting of the Brazilian Econometric Society (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  19. Vidyamurthy, G.: Pairs: Trading: Quantitative Methods and Analysis, vol. 217. Wiley, New York (2004)

    Google Scholar 

  20. Yang, J.W., Tsai, S.Y., Shyu, S.D., Chang, C.C.: Pairs trading: the performance of a stochastic spread model with regime switching-evidence from the S&P 500. Int. Rev. Econ. Financ. 43, 139–150 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kongliang Zhu .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2016 Springer International Publishing AG

About this paper

Cite this paper

Zhu, K., Yamaka, W., Sriboonchitta, S. (2016). Pair Trading Rule with Switching Regression GARCH Model. In: Huynh, VN., Inuiguchi, M., Le, B., Le, B., Denoeux, T. (eds) Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making. IUKM 2016. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 9978. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49046-5_50

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49046-5_50

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-49045-8

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-49046-5

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics