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A Bayesian Network Approach to Assessing the Risk and Reliability of Maritime Transport

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Business Information Systems Workshops (BIS 2016)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing ((LNBIP,volume 263))

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Abstract

The paper presents a conception of a doctoral dissertation, which concerns the problem of estimation of maritime risk and reliability of maritime transport services. In the dissertation a method for dynamic risk assessment based on the Bayesian Network approach is presented. The method concern the risk of an individual ship and its aim is to identify ships, which pose a potential threat due to their individual behaviour and characteristics. Within the article, the following aspects of the dissertation are presented: motivation standing behind the research, main assumptions for the proposed method, its novelty in comparison to existing solutions as well as preliminary results.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Since the research focuses only on the first two steps of FSA, only methods for risk identification and assessment are presented.

  2. 2.

    https://gisis.imo.org.

  3. 3.

    http://www.tokyo-mou.org/.

  4. 4.

    http://www.iomou.org/.

  5. 5.

    http://www.medmou.org/.

  6. 6.

    http://www.bsmou.org/.

  7. 7.

    http://cgmix.uscg.mil/PSIX/PSIXSearch.aspx.

  8. 8.

    https://www.marinetraffic.com.

  9. 9.

    http://maritime-connector.com.

  10. 10.

    http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-R/terrestrial/mars/Pages/MARS.aspx.

  11. 11.

    http://www.iacs.org.uk/shipdata.

  12. 12.

    Correlation analysis was limited to quantitative variables only (age and number of ships flying a given flag). It results from the assumptions to use the following coefficients: Pearson, Kendall and Spearman. Besides, the existence of correlation between ship’s size and accident rate was confirmed using the nCochran-Mantek-Haenschel and Fisher tests.

  13. 13.

    The distribution of original quantitative variables (age and size) is not linear what may influence the results of model’s calculations.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Poznań University of Economics and Business, Poznań, Poland

    Milena Stróżyna

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  1. Milena Stróżyna
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Correspondence to Milena Stróżyna .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Poznań University of Economics and Business, Poznan, Poland

    Witold Abramowicz

  2. Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany

    Rainer Alt

  3. Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany

    Bogdan Franczyk

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Stróżyna, M. (2017). A Bayesian Network Approach to Assessing the Risk and Reliability of Maritime Transport. In: Abramowicz, W., Alt, R., Franczyk, B. (eds) Business Information Systems Workshops. BIS 2016. Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing, vol 263. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-52464-1_34

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