A Proposal for the “Cariño Index”: A New Coordination Index Based on Weather Conditions

Abstract

Deciding “What to wear today” is an oftentimes pleasurable part of most people’s routine. However, especially at the turn of the season, wardrobe coordination often fails, leaving the individual feeling overly exposed or unnecessarily covered up. This premise is the basis of our proposal for the “Cariño index”, which provides a reliable basis of coordination in any season or weather; using the “Cariño equation” to calculate the optimal index. The paper introduces the concept and procedures which inform the Cariño index and equation. The data, methodology, processes and results are described and the effectiveness of the “Cariño equation” and future issues are discussed.

1 Introduction

Getting up in the morning and deciding what to put on is a necessary and, sometimes, even fun, task. Especially for women attentive to current fashion trends, clothing and attire can be an important choice that could affect their moods and dispositions during the day. However, typically at the turn of the season, (e.g. from spring to summer or from autumn to winter), dressing and garb tend to be uncoordinated with the weather. An example of this would be putting on a short sleeve shirt when the weather is still too cold for that sort of clothing.

With regards to this specific issue, the Japan Meteorological Agency also publishes a “clothing index” on its homepage (see Ref. [2]) to respond to this problem. Thus, for instance, if the clothing index is 20, a one-point advice “muffler and gloves are indispensable” is displayed. Nevertheless, a full body coordination is not covered by this index. To address this specific issue, we devised the “Cariño index” which is an index that ensures better coordination in any season and weather, and the “Cariño equation” to calculate its optimal index.

This paper introduces the concept and structure of the “Cariño index” and the “Cariño equation”, based on long-term observations in the Tokyo metropolis. The results of the evaluation experiments show the effectiveness of the “Cariño index” and the “Cariño equation”. Also, future work is considered.

Note: Cariño means affection in Spanish.

2 Concept

The “Cariño index” is the total number of points (total score) assigned to a collection of items belonging to each of five groups of clothing articles, including; outer, tops, bottoms, shoes, and the other (see Fig. 1). Figures 2 and 3 show the score table in detail.

Fig. 1.

Calculation example of Cariño index

Fig. 2.

Outer and tops score

Fig. 3.

Bottoms, shoes, and the other scores

In accordance with the weather on a given day, the formula for deriving the optimum “Cariño index” is the “Cariño equation”.

3 Observation Experiment

We conducted an observation experiment for 365 days (encompassing four seasons) to gather the data which informs the basis of the “Cariño equation”.

3.1 Observation Method

Our observations involved drawing full-body sketches of 5 young women at a station in Tokyo every day. At the same time, we recorded weather data for the observed day. The experiment period lasted from October 7, 2015 to October 22, 2016. The specific site of the experiment was near the ticket gate of the station, which is a main thoroughfare in the center of Tokyo. Figure 4 shows an observation record note.

Fig. 4.

Observation record note

In addition to sketches of five people, the weather data of the day is cited from information found on the homepage of the Meteorological Agency website. Also, the “Cariño index” and its breakdown for the five persons are recorded at the bottom of the page. The weather data include, temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind direction, wind speed, and clothing index.

3.2 Experimental Results

Over the course of this experiment, we gathered data for 1898 persons’ coordination as well as weather data for a one year period. Based on data from the observation experiment, Fig. 5 presents the average of the “Cariño index” for each month. The monthly average for the “Cariño index” was highest between December and February, and lowest from July to August.

Fig. 5.

Transition of Cariño index in 1 year

For each number in the “Cariño index”, Table 1 summarizes the number of samples recorded and the main month and main coordination based on the data from the observation experiment.

Table 1. Month and coordination corresponding to each Cariño index number

4 The Cariño Equation: Calculating the Optimal Cariño Index

The “Cariño equation” is the formula for deriving the optimal “Cariño index” under certain weather conditions based on the observation data. For this equation, consider the following multiple regression model consisting of multiple explanatory variables to explain and predict the “Cariño index”.

$$ y_{i} = \beta_{0} \text{ + }\beta_{1} x_{i1} \text{ + }\beta_{2} x_{i2} \text{ + }\beta_{3} x_{i3} \text{ + } \ldots \text{ + }\beta_{p} x_{ip} \text{ + }\varepsilon_{i} $$

Multiple regression analysis was carried out using weather conditions such as humidity and temperature of a given day as explanatory variables (x _{i1 ~} x _ip ) and the “Cariño index” of the day as an objective variable (y _i ); the variables were then selected repeatedly to obtain the following “Cariño equation”.

$$ y = 2 1.0 4- 0. 4 8x_{1} - 0.0 2x_{2} + 0.0 9x_{3} $$

(1)

y::

Cariño index

x ₁ ::

Temperature (°C)

x ₂ ::

Humidity (%)

x ₃ ::

Wind speed (m/sec)

The explanatory variable adopted the temperature, humidity, and wind speed. The value of R-squared (coefficient of determination) which is an indicator of the explanatory power of this regression equation was 0.774. There is no clear criterion for the coefficient of determination, but it is said that the explanatory power of the formula is high if it is generally 0.7 or more. The t-value of each explanatory variable are shown in Table 2. If the absolute value of the t-value is 2 or more, it is judged that the explanatory variable is significantly effective for the objective variable.

Table 2. The t-value of each explanatory variable

So, the formula (1) can be adopted as the “Cariño equation” for forecasting optimal “Cariño index” of the day.

5 Evaluation Experiment

To verify the accuracy of the “Cariño equation”, evaluation experiments were carried out by spending several days with coordinated clothes predicted from the “Cariño equation”.

5.1 Methods

The subject (in this case, myself) decided the coordination of the daily clothing for 10 days in January 2017, per the optimal “Cariño index” calculated from the “Cariño equation”. The temperature comfort for everyday is then evaluated.

5.2 Results

Table 3 shows comparison records of optimal indices and self-indices for all 10 days. The optimal index means the “Cariño index” of the day calculated from the “Cariño equation”. The self-index is the “Cariño index” of one’s actual coordination on that day based on the optimal index. The difference is a value obtained by subtracting the optimal index from the self-index, with a margin for error/deviation of ± 3 kept in mind. In addition, the individual’s evaluation/opinion of temperature (Sensible temperature) with regards to personal comfort was assigned based on a description of 5 stages (cold, somewhat cold, comfortable, somewhat hot, and hot) for the day (Fig. 6).

Table 3. Result of evaluation experiment

Fig. 6.

Coordination of each 10 days

5.3 Considerations

There was no significant failure recorded due to the coordination comparison between the optimal index and the self-index.

The optimal index is usually obtained in the morning before leaving the house. Thus, it was comfortable from morning to noon for all 10 days, but by dusk/nighttime, thicker garments became necessary. Also, while it was comfortable outside, temperatures were understandably warmer indoors. Ultimately, there was better coordination compared to the people around the subject, who had not applied the “Cariño index”.

6 Summary and Future Studies

This paper proposes the concept and the generation procedure of the “Cariño index”, which becomes the basis of clothing-weather coordination with little to no failure instances in any weather and or season; along with the “Cariño equation” to calculate the optimal index. A one year observation experiment and results demonstrate the effectiveness of the “Cariño index” and the “Cariño equation”.

Given the validation of the equation to a certain degree, with regards to the experiment carried out on myself, we intend to conduct similar evaluation experiments with women of the same age as subjects for future studies.

Furthermore, the system to calculate and reference the “Cariño index” will be improved upon. Specifically, by using the sketches of the record notes of the observation experiment, we will display sketches of the same coordination as the optimal index of the day. In so doing, not only numerical values but also visual reference of the day’s coordination can be used.