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Modeling Power and Authority: An Emergentist View from Afghanistan

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Simulating Social Complexity

Part of the book series: Understanding Complex Systems ((UCS))

Abstract

The aim of this chapter is to provide a critical overview of state-of-the-art models that deal with power and authority and to present an alternative research design. The chapter is motivated by the fact that research on power and authority is confined by a general lack of statistical data. However, the literal complexity of structures and mechanisms of power and authority requires a formalized and dynamic approach of analysis if more than a narrative understanding of the object of investigation is sought. It is demonstrated that evidence-driven and agent-based social simulation (EDABSS) can contend with the inclusion of qualitative data and the effects of social complexity at the same time. A model on Afghan power structures exemplifying this approach is introduced and discussed in detail from the data collection process and the creation of a higher order intuitive model to the derivation of the agent rules and the model’s computational implementation. EDABSS not only deals in a very direct way with social reality but also produces complex artificial representations of this reality. Explicit sociocultural and epistemological couching of an EDABSS model is therefore essential and treated as well.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Schelling (1998) understands a “social mechanism […][as] a plausible hypotheses, or set of plausible hypotheses, that could be the explanation of some social phenomenon, the explanation being in terms of interactions between individuals and other individuals, or between individuals and some social aggregate.” Alternatively, a social mechanism is an interpretation, in terms of individual behavior, of a model that abstractly reproduces the phenomenon that needs explaining.

  2. 2.

    See for a promising corrective Sambanis (2004).

  3. 3.

    Models not discussed in this subsection but of further interest to the reader are Alam et al. (2005), Caldas and Coelho (1999), Guyot et al. (2006), Lustick (2000), Mosler (2006), Rouchier and Thoyer (2006), Saam and Harrer (1999), and Younger (2005). Particularly highlighted should be the work of Mailliard and Sibertin-Blanc (2010) who merge a multi-agent and social network approach to the complexity and transactional nature of power with approaches to power from the French school of sociology and develop against this background a formal logic system.

  4. 4.

    A model not discussed in this section but that is of excellent quality, both in terms of content and innovation is Guyot et al. (2006). The authors analyze and discuss the evolution of power relations on the basis of participatory simulations of negotiation for common pool resources.

  5. 5.

    The term condensation is alternatively denoted by Stachowiak (1973) as reduction and by Casti (1997) as allegorization. Other important modeling principles are simplicity and pragmatism (Lave and March 1975).

  6. 6.

    The literature on qualitative data research has grown considerably in the last years, and the interested reader is referred to, among many others, (Lazer 2001) and (Silverman 2004).

  7. 7.

    We are well aware of the ongoing discussion on induction with regard to case-study research and the interested reader may refer, among others, to Gomm et al. (1992), Eckstein (1992) and Stakes (1978).

  8. 8.

    See for a more complete treatment of endorsements (Alam et al. 2010).

  9. 9.

    Hence, a declarative model architecture does not allow easily for exact simulation replication. Other disadvantages are that declarative models tend to be computationally expensive and ontologically complex.

  10. 10.

    Parts of this and the next paragraph have been taken from Geller and Moss (2007).

  11. 11.

    Monsutti (2004) “explores the basis of cooperation in a situation of war and migration” among the Hazara in Afghanistan through the concepts of solidarity and reciprocity. Nancy Tapper (1991) “reveals the structure of competition and conflict for the control of political and economic resources” through the concept of marriage.

  12. 12.

    Whether a qawm denotes a group or a network is not clear from the evidence. Following Tapper’s (2008) argument, a qawm can take the form of a group or a network, depending on the context.

  13. 13.

    Note that we are not simulating the genesis of a powerful agent, but the emergence of power as a network-like structure in an evidence-based, artificial society. See for the qualitative description of such a genesis (Giustozzi 2006).

  14. 14.

    We do not consider the emergence of conflict in this chapter. See for a preliminary discussion (Gerring 2004).

  15. 15.

    This paragraph is a condensed version of Geller and Moss (2008a). See also Geller and Moss (2007, 2008b).

  16. 16.

    Fuchs (2005) only collected data of elites. In order to compare her results with those generated from the simulation presented here, all ordinary agents, i.e., non-elites, had to be removed from the network to meaningfully calculate the desired network measures. Note that the simulation parameters remained unchanged. Note also that the two networks vary in size: 62 agents participate in the Fuchs network and 30 in the AfghanModel network. This can lead to boundary specification problems.

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Acknowledgments

We would like to thank Bruce Edmonds, Martin Neumann, and Flaminio Squazzoni for thoughtful and helpful comments. We also thank Zemaray Hakimi for translation and facilitator skills, Sayyed Askar Mousavi for advice in the data collection process, Shah Jamal Alam, Ruth Meyer, and Bogdan Werth for modeling support, and the Bibliotheca Afghanica for access to its library.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Scencei–Analytics for All, 1420 Prince Street, Alexandria, VA, 22314, USA

    Armando Geller

  2. Scott and Linda Moss Associates, Brookcliffe House, Derbyshire and Koblenz University, Mainz, Germany

    Scott Moss

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Correspondence to Armando Geller .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Policy Modelling, Manchester Metropolitan University, Business School, Manchester, United Kingdom

    Bruce Edmonds

  2. Centre for Policy Modelling, Manchester Metropolitan University, Business School, Manchester, United Kingdom

    Ruth Meyer

Further Reading

Further Reading

Whereas the literature on power and authority is overwhelming, published work on power and authority and modeling and simulation is, comparatively speaking, meager. For further reading we suggest Alam et al. (2005) and Rouchier et al. (2001) for models concerned with the emergence of structures and authority in gift exchange, Geller and Moss (2008a) and Alam et al. (2008) for empirical models relevant to power and authority, Axelrod (1995) and Cederman (1997) for applications of modeling power to conflict in international relations, Mailliard and Sibertin-Blanc (2010) for a good discussion of multiagent simulation and power from a sociological perspective, and finally Guyot et al. (2006) for a participatory modeling approach with relevance to power and authority.

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Geller, A., Moss, S. (2017). Modeling Power and Authority: An Emergentist View from Afghanistan. In: Edmonds, B., Meyer, R. (eds) Simulating Social Complexity. Understanding Complex Systems. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-66948-9_27

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