Skip to main content

System Dynamics of Dependent Requirements Variations in Automotive Supply Networks – Insights on a Horizontal Bullwhip Effect

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Dynamics in Logistics (LDIC 2018)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Logistics ((LNLO))

Included in the following conference series:

Abstract

Addressing the root causes of schedule instability, particularly the unreliability of suppliers’ production processes in a supply network, can help to curtail short-term demand variations and increase the overall supply chain efficiency. Hence, we introduce a stylized automotive supply chain with two suppliers and a single original equipment manufacturer (OEM). This supply chain can be disrupted by a shortage occurring at one of the suppliers due to random machine breakdowns, what consequently creates dependent requirements variations (DRV) affecting both the OEM and the other supplier. Using a System Dynamics (SD) simulation which contains the said mechanism causing schedule instability, comparative simulation scenarios were carried out to gain theoretical insights with regard to the nature of DRV. As a result, the simulation study shows that the Bullwhip Effect is not just detectable on a vertical supply chain level under demand uncertainties, but also on a horizontal supply chain level when production risks are present.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 169.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Angerhofer, B.J., Angelides, M.C.: System dynamics modelling in supply chain management: research review. In: Proceedings of the 2000 Winter Simulation Conference, vol. 1, pp. 342–351 (2000)

    Google Scholar 

  • Childerhouse, P., Disney, S., Towill, D.: On the impact of order volatility in the European automotive sector. Int. J. Prod. Econ. 114, 2–13 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Croson, R., Donohue, K., Katok, E., Sterman, J.D.: Order stability in supply chains: coordination risk and the role of coordination stock. Prod. Oper. Manag. 23, 176–196 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davis, J., Eisenhardt, K., Bingham, C.: Developing theory through simulation methods. Acad. Manag. Rev. 32, 480–499 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gruchmann, T., Gollmann, T.: Simulation-based modeling and analysis of schedule instability in automotive supply networks. In: Operations Research Proceedings 2015, vol. 1, pp. 453–458 (2017)

    Google Scholar 

  • Hallikas, J., Karvonen, I., Pulkkinen, U., Virolainen, V.M., Tuominen, M.: Risk management processes in supplier networks. Int. J. Prod. Econ. 90, 47–58 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang, M., Yang, M., Zhang, Y., Liu, B.: System dynamics modeling-based study of contingent sourcing under supply disruptions. Syst. Eng. Procedia 4, 290–297 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ivanov, D., Dolgui, A., Sokolov, B.: Supply chain design with disruption considerations: review of research streams on the ripple effect in the supply chain. In: IFAC Conference Papers, vol. 1, pp. 1700–1707 (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  • Ivanov, D., Sokolov, B., Dolgui, A.: The ripple effect in supply chains: trade-off ‘efficiency-flexibility-resilience’ in disruption management. Int. J. Prod. Res. 52, 2154–2172 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Özbayrak, M., Papadopoulou, T.C., Akgun, M.: Systems dynamics modelling of a manufacturing supply chain system. Simul. Model. Pract. Theory 15, 1338–1355 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sivadasan, S., Smart, J., Huatuco, L., Calinescu, A.: Operational complexity and supplier-customer integration: case studies insights and complexity rebound. J. Oper. Res. Soc. 61, 1709–1718 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sterman, J.D.: Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill, New York (2000)

    Google Scholar 

  • Sterman, J.D., Dogan, G.: “I’m not hoarding, I’m just stocking up before the hoarders get here”: behavioral causes of phantom ordering in supply chains. J. Oper. Manag. 39, 6–22 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tako, A., Robinson, S.: The application of discrete event simulation and system dynamics in the logistics and supply chain context. Decis. Support Syst. 52, 802–815 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thierry, C., Bel, G., Thomas, A.: The role of modeling and simulation in supply chain management. SCS M&S Mag. 1, 1–8 (2010)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Tim Gruchmann .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2018 Springer International Publishing AG

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Gruchmann, T., Rebs, T. (2018). System Dynamics of Dependent Requirements Variations in Automotive Supply Networks – Insights on a Horizontal Bullwhip Effect. In: Freitag, M., Kotzab, H., Pannek, J. (eds) Dynamics in Logistics. LDIC 2018. Lecture Notes in Logistics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74225-0_55

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74225-0_55

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-74224-3

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-74225-0

  • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics