Skip to main content

Designing a Procedure for the Acquisition of Probability Constraints for Bayesian Networks

  • Conference paper
Engineering Knowledge in the Age of the Semantic Web (EKAW 2004)

Abstract

Among the various tasks involved in building a Bayesian network for a real-life application, the task of eliciting all probabilities required is generally considered the most daunting. We propose to simplify this task by first acquiring qualitative features of the probability distribution to be represented; these features can subsequently be taken as constraints on the precise probabilities to be obtained. We discuss the design of a procedure that guides the knowledge engineer in acquiring these qualitative features in an efficient way, based on an in-depth analysis of all viable combinations of features. In addition, we report on initial experiences with our procedure in the domain of neonatology.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Jensen, F.V.: Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs. Springer, New York (2001)

    Book  MATH  Google Scholar 

  2. Helsper, E.M., van der Gaag, L.C.: Building Bayesian networks through ontologies. In: van Harmelen, F. (ed.) Proceedings of the 15th European Conference on Artificial Intelligence, pp. 680–684. IOS Press, Amsterdam (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  3. Druzdzel, M.J., van der Gaag, L.C.: Building probabilistic networks: ”Where do the numbers come from?” Guest editors’ introduction. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering 12, 481–486 (2000)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Druzdzel, M.J., van der Gaag, L.C.: Elicitation of probabilities for belief networks: combining qualitative and quantitative information. In: Ph. Besnard, S. (ed.) Proceedings of the Eleventh Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, pp. 141–148. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, San Francisco (1995)

    Google Scholar 

  5. Renooij, S., van der Gaag, L.C.: From qualitative to quantitative probabilistic networks. In: Darwiche, A., Friedman, N. (eds.) Proceedings of the Eighteenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, pp. 422–429. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, San Francisco (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  6. Wellman, M.P.: Fundamental concepts of qualitative probabilistic networks. Artificial Intelligence 44, 257–303 (1990)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  7. van der Gaag, L.C., Helsper, E.M.: Defining classes of influences for the acquisition of probability constraints for Bayesian networks. In: Proceedings of the 16th Conference on Artificial Intelligence (2004) to appear

    Google Scholar 

  8. Henrion, M., Druzdzel, M.J.: Qualitative propagation and scenario-based approaches to explanation in probabilistic reasoning. In: Bonissone, P.P., Henrion, M., Kanal, L.N., Lemmer, J.F. (eds.) Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, vol. 6, pp. 17–32. Elsevier, North-Holland (1991)

    Google Scholar 

  9. Gigerenzer, G., Hoffrage, U.: How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats. Psychological Review 102, 684–704 (1995)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2004 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this paper

Cite this paper

Helsper, E.M., van der Gaag, L.C., Groenendaal, F. (2004). Designing a Procedure for the Acquisition of Probability Constraints for Bayesian Networks. In: Motta, E., Shadbolt, N.R., Stutt, A., Gibbins, N. (eds) Engineering Knowledge in the Age of the Semantic Web. EKAW 2004. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 3257. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-30202-5_19

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-30202-5_19

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-540-23340-4

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-540-30202-5

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics