Abstract
The two puzzles are the Lottery Paradox and the Amalgamation Paradox, which both point out difficulties for aggregating uncertain information. A generalization of the lottery paradox is presented and a new form of an amalgamation reversal is introduced. Together these puzzles highlight a difficulty for introducing measures of uncertainty to a variety of logical knowledge representation frameworks. The point is illustrated by contrasting the constraints on solutions to each puzzle with the structural properties of the preferential semantics for non-monotonic logics (System P), and also with systems of normal modal logics. The difficulties illustrate several points of tensions between the aggregation of uncertain information and aggregation according to the monotonically positive Boolean connectives, ∧ and ∨.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Adams, E.: Probability and the logic of conditionals. In: Hintikka, J., Suppes, P. (eds.) Aspects of Inductive Logic, pp. 265–316. North Holland, Amsterdam (1966)
Adams, E.: The Logic of Conditionals. Reidel, Dordrecht (1975)
Arló-Costa, H.: Bayesian epistemology and epistemic conditionals. Journal of Philosophy 98(11), 555–598 (2001)
Arló-Costa, H.: First order extensions of classical systems of modal logic; the role of the Barcan schemas. Studia Logica 71(1), 87–118 (2002)
Arló-Costa, H., Parikh, R.: Conditional probability and defeasible inference. Journal of Philosophical Logic 34, 97–119 (2005)
Bickel, P.J., Hjammel, E.A., Connell, J.W.: Sex bias in graduate admissions: Data from berkeley. Science 187, 398–404 (1975)
Brown, B.: Adjunction and aggregation. Nous 33(2), 273–283 (1999)
Carnap, R.: The Logical Foundations of Probability, 2nd edn. University of Chicago Press, Chicago (1962)
Chellas, B.: Modal Logic. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1980)
Douven, I., Williamson, T.: Generalizing the lottery paradox. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 57(4), 755–779 (2006)
Fagin, R., Halpern, J.Y., Moses, Y., Vardi, M.Y.: Reasoning About Knowledge. MIT Press, Cambridge (2003)
Van Fraassen, B.C.: Fine-grained opinion, probability, and the logic of belief. Journal of Philosophical Logic 95, 349–377 (1995)
Good, I.J., Mittal, Y.: The amalgamation and geometry of two-by-two contingency tables. The Annals of Statistics 15(2), 694–711 (1987)
Haenni, R.: Web of trust: Applying probabilistic argumentation to public-key cryptography. In: Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty, pp. 243–254. Springer, Heidelberg (2004)
Halpern, J.Y.: Reasoning about Uncertainty. MIT Press, Cambridge (2003)
Hawthorne, J., Bovens, L.: The preface, the lottery, and the logic of belief. Mind 108, 241–264 (1999)
Hawthorne, J., Makinson, D.C.: The quantitative/qualitative watershed for rules of uncertain inference. Studia Logica (2007)
Jeffrey, R.: Valuation and acceptance of scientific hypotheses. Philosophy of Science 23(3), 237–246 (1956)
Kersting, K., Raedt, L.D.: Bayesian logic programming: Theory and tool. In: Getoor, L., Taskar, B. (eds.) Introduction to Statistical Relational Learning, MIT Press, Cambridge (2007)
Kraus, S., Lehman, D., Magidor, M.: Nonmonotonic reasoning, preferential models and cumulative logics. Artificial Intelligence 44, 167–207 (1990)
Kyburg Jr., H.E.: Probability and the Logic of Rational Belief. Wesleyan University Press, Middletown, CT (1961)
Kyburg Jr., H.E., Teng, C.M.: Uncertain Inference. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2001)
Kyburg Jr., H.E., Teng, C.M.: The logic of risky knowledge. In: Electronic Notes in Theoretical Computer Science, vol. 67, Elsevier Science, Amsterdam (2002)
Kyburg Jr., H.E., Teng, C.M., Wheeler, G.: Conditionals and consequences. Journal of Applied Logic (2007)
Lehman, D., Magidor, M.: What does a conditional knowledge base entail? Artificial Intelligence 55, 1–60 (1990)
Makinson, D.C.: General patterns in nonmonotonic reasoning. In: Gabbay, D., Hogger, C., Robinson, J.A. (eds.) Handbook of Logic in Artificial Intelligence and Uncertain Reasoning, vol. 3, Clarendon Press, Oxford (1994)
Montague, R.: Universial grammer. Theoria 36, 373–398 (1970)
Pearl, J.: Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems. Morgan Kaufmann, San Francisco (1988)
Pearl, J.: System Z: A natural ordering of defaults with tractable applications to default reasoning. Theoretical Aspects of Reasoning about Knowedge, 121–135 (1990)
Pearl, J.: Causality. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2000)
Pearson, K.: Theory of genetic (reproductive) selection. Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society of London, Ser. A 192, 260–278 (1899)
Scott, D.: Advice in modal logic. In: Lambert, K. (ed.) Philosophical Problems in Logic, pp. 143–173. Reidel, Dordrecht (1970)
Suppes, P.: A Probabilistic Theory of Causality. North-Holland Publishing Co., Amsterdam (1970)
Thrun, S., Burgard, W., Fox, D.: Probabilistic Robotics. MIT Press, Cambridge (2005)
Wheeler, G.: Rational acceptance and conjunctive/disjunctive absorption. Journal of Logic, Language and Information 15(1-2), 49–63 (2006)
Wheeler, G.: A review of the lottery paradox. In: Harper, W.L., Wheeler, G. (eds.) Probability and Inference: Essays in Honour of Henry E. Kyburg, Jr., King’s College Publications (2007)
Wheeler, G.: Applied logic without psychologism. Studia Logica (forthcoming)
Yule, G.U.: Notes on the theory of association of attributes in statistics. Biometrika 2, 121–134 (1903)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2007 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Wheeler, G. (2007). Two Puzzles Concerning Measures of Uncertainty and the Positive Boolean Connectives. In: Neves, J., Santos, M.F., Machado, J.M. (eds) Progress in Artificial Intelligence. EPIA 2007. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 4874. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-77002-2_15
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-77002-2_15
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-77000-8
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-77002-2
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)