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Assessing the Accuracy of Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Models

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Biosurveillance and Biosecurity (BioSecure 2008)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNBI,volume 5354))

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Abstract

To demonstrate an approach that allows for the assessment of models and their accuracy, a numerical experiment was designed to generate a “control” data set and treated it as if it were “real” data. The open source spatiotemporal epidemiological modeler (STEM) was used to develop a control scenario depicting the spread of influenza in the state of Vermont; this scenario was then compared to three alternative models using such tools as root mean square differences and phase space analysis. This approach may prove helpful in responding to global pandemics and arriving at necessary policy decisions.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Healthcare Informatics Research, IBM Almaden Research Center, 650 Harry Road, San Jose, California, 95120, United States of America

    James H. Kaufman, Daniel A. Ford, Barbara Jones & Judith V. Douglas

  2. College of Medicine, University of Vermont, 89 Beaumont Avenue, Burlington, Vermont, 05405, United States of America

    Joanna L. Conant

  3. Wakana Kirihata, Columbia University, 3613 Lerner Hall, 2920 Broadway, New York, New York 10027, United States of America

    Wakana Kirihata

Authors
  1. James H. Kaufman
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  2. Joanna L. Conant
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  3. Daniel A. Ford
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  4. Wakana Kirihata
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  5. Barbara Jones
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  6. Judith V. Douglas
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. MIS Department, University of Arizona and Chinese Academy of Sciences, Tucson, AZ, USA

    Daniel Zeng

  2. Department of Management Information Systems, Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona, 85721, AZ, USA

    Hsinchun Chen

  3. US CDC, National Center for Public Health Informatics, Atlanta, GA, USA

    Henry Rolka

  4. University of Washington, Health Sciences Building, 1959 NE Pacific St., WA 98195, Seattle, USA

    Bill Lober

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© 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

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Kaufman, J.H., Conant, J.L., Ford, D.A., Kirihata, W., Jones, B., Douglas, J.V. (2008). Assessing the Accuracy of Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Models. In: Zeng, D., Chen, H., Rolka, H., Lober, B. (eds) Biosurveillance and Biosecurity . BioSecure 2008. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 5354. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-89746-0_14

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-89746-0_14

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-540-89745-3

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-540-89746-0

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

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