The Main Principles of Simulation Modeling of the Sustainable Development Complexes System: Case of World Economy

Abstract

The phenomenon of states changes of the world economy during the last 200 years shows that there is a certain 70-year regularity in its development, which is expressed in increased structural complexity of the global economic system every 70 years. The development happens after certain periods of bifurcation (up to 50 years) accompanied by the lower rates of economic development, and periods of adaptation (up to 20 years) with the higher rates. The theoretical justification of this process shows that the increased structural complexity of the global economic system is the external manifestations of the self-organization process in a large complex system we call the “world economy”. The “world economy” is regarded as global economic environment where countries and their group organizations are ordinary agents. Every agent has the same properties as the system: they can be open, non-equilibrium, dissipative, self-organizing; they can also have the aim - to maintain integrity through the main function (development). We can watch the fractal symmetry of all general properties ranging from the global system to its ordinary agent. Development, the main function of the system, is viewed as the movement of economic environment. Basing on the assumption about maintaining boundary limits of system stability we solve the task of stable movement of environment and sustainable development of the global civilization in the context of fixed main properties and system characteristics. On the basis of outlined properties we make a mathematical model of non-linear dynamic system - development of the global system.