Skip to main content

Black Swans, Gray Cygnets and Other Rare Birds

  • Conference paper
Case-Based Reasoning Research and Development (ICCBR 2009)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNAI,volume 5650))

Included in the following conference series:

Abstract

Surprising, exceptional cases — so-called black swans — can provoke extraordinary change in the way we do things or conceptualize the world. While it is not unreasonable to be surprised by a black swan, to be surprised by subsequent cases that are similar enough that they might cause the same sort of upheaval is unforgivable. The problem is how to reason about these almost novel, not totally unforeseen, subsequent cases that I call gray cygnets.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Ashley, K.D.: Modeling Legal Argument: Reasoning with Cases and Hypotheticals. MIT Press, Cambridge (1990)

    Google Scholar 

  2. Branting, L.K.: Building Explanations from Rules and Structured Cases. International Journal of Man-Machine Studies (IJMMS) 34(6), 797–837 (1991)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Falkenheimer, B., Forbus, K.D., Gentner, D.: The Structure-Mapping Engine: Algorithm and Examples. Artificial Intelligence 41(1), 1–63 (1989)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  4. Gentner, D.: Structure-Mapping: A Theoretical Framework for Analogy. Cognitive Science 7(2), 155–170 (1983)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Hart, H.L.A.: Positivism and the Separation of Law and Morals. Harvard Law Review 71, 593–629 (1958); reprinted in Hart, Essays in Jurisprudence and Philosophy. Oxford (1983)

    Google Scholar 

  6. Hammond, K.J.: Case-Based Planning: Viewing Planning as a Memory Task. Academic Press, London (1989)

    Book  MATH  Google Scholar 

  7. Hastings, J., Branting, L.K., Lockwood, J.: CARMA: A Case-Based Rangeland Management Advisor. AI Magazine 23(2), 49–62 (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  8. Horling, B., Benyo, B., Lesser, V.: Using Self-Diagnosis to Adapt Organizational Structures. In: Proc. AGENTS 2001, Montreal (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  9. Horvitz, E., Apacible, J., Sarin, R., Liao, L.: Prediction, Expectation, and Surprise: Methods, Designs, and Study of a Deployed Traffic Forecasting System. In: Proc. UAI (2005)

    Google Scholar 

  10. Lakatos, I.: Proofs and Refutations. Cambridge (1976)

    Google Scholar 

  11. Leake, D.B.: Evaluating Explanations: A Content Theory. Lawrence Erlbaum, Mahwah (1992)

    Google Scholar 

  12. Levi, E.H.: An Introduction to Legal Reasoning. Chicago (1949)

    Google Scholar 

  13. Marling, C., Rissland, E.L., Aamodt, A.: Integrations with case-based reasoning. Knowledge Engineering Review 20(3), 241–246 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Massie, S., Wiratunga, N., Craw, S., Donati, A., Vicari, E.: From anomaly reports to cases. In: Weber, R.O., Richter, M.M. (eds.) ICCBR 2007. LNCS, vol. 4626, pp. 359–373. Springer, Heidelberg (2007)

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  15. Massie, S., Craw, S., Wiratunga, N.: Complexity-Guided Case Discovery for Case Based Reasoning. In: Proc. AAAI 2005, pp. 216–221 (2005)

    Google Scholar 

  16. Rissland, E.L.: AI and Similarity. IEEE Information Systems 21(3), 39–49 (2006)

    Google Scholar 

  17. Rissland, E.L.: Dimension-based Analysis of Hypotheticals from Supreme Court Oral Argument. In: Proc. Second International Conf. on AI and Law (ICAIL 1989), Vancouver, BC, pp. 111–120 (1989)

    Google Scholar 

  18. Rissland, E.L.: Epistemology, Representation, Understanding and Interactive Exploration of Mathematical Theories. Ph.D. dissertation, Department of Mathematics, MIT (1977)

    Google Scholar 

  19. Rissland, E.L., Ashley, K.D.: Hypotheticals as Heuristic Device. In: Proceedings Fifth International Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI 1986), pp. 289–297 (1986)

    Google Scholar 

  20. Rissland, E.L., Skalak, D.B.: CABARET: Statutory Interpretation in a Hybrid Architecture. International Journal of Man-Machine Studies (IJMMS) 34, 839–887 (1991)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Rosch, E., et al.: Basic Objects in Natural Categories. Cognitive Psychology 8(3), 382–439 (1976)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Rosch, E., Mervais, C.B.: Family Resemblance: Studies in the Internal Structure of Categories. Cognitive Psychology 7, 573–605 (1975)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Skalak, D.B., Rissland, E.L.: Arguments and Cases: An Inevitable Intertwining. Artificial Intelligence and Law 1(1), 3–44 (1992)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Taleb, N.N.: The Black Swan. Random House (2007)

    Google Scholar 

  25. Weintraub, D.: Is Pluto a Planet? Princeton (2007)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2009 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this paper

Cite this paper

Rissland, E.L. (2009). Black Swans, Gray Cygnets and Other Rare Birds. In: McGinty, L., Wilson, D.C. (eds) Case-Based Reasoning Research and Development. ICCBR 2009. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 5650. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-02998-1_2

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-02998-1_2

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-02997-4

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-02998-1

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics