The financial market turmoil has been shocking the world since early 2008. As is aptly stated by the president of the European Central Bank, Trichet (2008), the widespread undervaluation of risk is one of the most important issues in this context and appropriate operational risk management is a crucial issue to be investigated. A seemingly unrelated issue is to measure and predict the treatment effect of education on income. This issue is crucial for any country that increasingly relies on the “knowledge economy. ” In recent research by the authors it is stressed that these seemingly unrelated issues pose similar questions and have common components from a modeling and statistical viewpoint.
Posterior density of π (expected difference in years of education between children born in April-December and January-March) and β(treatment effect of education on income) for 29,015 data (used by...
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References and Further Reading
Angrist JD, Krueger AB (1991) Does compulsory school attendance affect schooling and earnings? Quart J Econom 106:979–1014
Ardia D, Hoogerheide LF, Van Dijk HK (2009) To bridge, to warp or to wrap? A comparative study of Monte Carlo methods for efficient evaluation of marginal likelihoods. TI discusion paper 09-017/4
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Hoogerheide LF (2006) Essays on neural network sampling methods and instrumental variables. Ph.D. thesis, Book nr. 379 of the Tinbergen Institute Research Series, Erasmus University Rotterdam
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Hoogerheide LF, Kleibergen F, Van Dijk HK (2007b) Natural conjugate priors for the instrumental variables regression model applied to the Angrist-Krueger data. J Econom 138(1):63–103
Hoogerheide LF, Kleijn R, Ravazzolo F, Van Dijk HK, Verbeek M (2010) Forecast accuracy and economic gains from Bayesian model averaging using time varying weights. J Forecast, 29:251–269
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Trichet JC (2008) Macroeconomic policy is essential to stability. Financial Times, November 13, 2008, p 13
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Hoogerheide, L., van Dijk, H.K. (2011). Simulation Based Bayes Procedures for Model Structures with Non-Elliptical Posteriors. In: Lovric, M. (eds) International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-04898-2_520
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