Abstract
This chapter deals with the manner of making diagnoses and decisions, called strategic style, in a gambling game called Pared-down Poker. The approach treats style as a mental mode in which choices are constrained by expected utilities. The focus is on two classes of utility, i.e., money and effort, and how cognitive styles compare to normative strategies in optimizing these utilities. The insights are applied to real-world concerns like managing the war against terror networks and assessing the risks of system failures. After “Introducing the Interactions” involved in playing poker, the contents are arranged in four sections, as follows. “Underpinnings of Utility” outlines four classes of utility and highlights the differences between them: economic utility (money), ergonomic utility (effort), informatic utility (knowledge), and aesthetic utility (pleasure). “Inference and Investment” dissects the cognitive challenges of playing poker and relates them to real-world situations of business and war, where the key tasks are inference (of cards in poker, or strength in war) and investment (of chips in poker, or force in war) to maximize expected utility. “Strategies and Styles” presents normative (optimal) approaches to inference and investment, and compares them to cognitive heuristics by which people play poker–-focusing on Bayesian methods and how they differ from human styles. The normative strategy is then pitted against cognitive styles in head-to-head tournaments, and tournaments are also held between different styles. The results show that style is ergonomically efficient and economically effective, i.e., style is smart. “Applying the Analysis” explores how style spaces, of the sort used to model individual behavior in Pared-down Poker, might also be applied to real-world problems where organizations evolve in terror networks and accidents arise from system failures.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Apostolico D (2005) Tournament poker and the art of war. Lyle Stuart, New York, NY
Barone L, While L (1999) An adaptive learning model for simplified poker using evolutionary algorithms. In: Proceedings of the congress on evolutionary computation, Washington, DC, July 6–9, pp 153–160
Bayes T (1763) An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. Philos Trans R Soc Lond 53:370–418
Bechara A, Damasio H, Tranel D, Damasio A (1997) Deciding advantageously before knowing the advantageous strategy. Science 275:1293–1295
Bechara A, Damasio H (2002) Decision-making and addiction (Part I): impaired activation of somatic states in substance dependent individuals when pondering decisions with negative future consequences. Neuropsychologia 40:1675–1689
Bechara A, Dolan S, Hindes A (2002) Decision-making and addiction (Part II): myopia for the future or hypersensitivity to reward. Neuropsychologia 40:1690–1705
Bernoulli D (1738) Exposition of a new theory of the measurement of risk (trans: Sommer L (1954)). Econometrica 22:23–26
Bernstein P (1996) Against the gods: the remarkable story of risk. Wiley, New York, NY
Billings D, Davidson A, Schaeffer J, Szafron D (2002) The challenge of poker. Artif Intell 134:201–240
Billings D, Papp D, Schaeffer J, Szafron D (1998) Opponent modeling in poker. In: Proceedings of the conference on artificial intelligence, Madison, WI, July 26–30, pp 493–498
Borel É (1938) Traié du calcul des probabiliés et ses applications Volume 4, Fascicule 2, Applications aux jeux des hazard. Gautier-Villars, Paris
Brandenburger A, Nalebuff B (1996) Co-opetition. Doubleday, New York, NY
Burns K (2007) EVE’s entropy: a formal gauge of fun in games. Stud Comput Intell 71:153–173
Burns K (2007) Dealing with probabilities: on improving inferences with Bayesian boxes. In: Hoffman R (ed) Expertise out of context. Lawrence Erlbaum, New York, NY
Burns K (2006) Atoms of EVE’: a Bayesian basis for aesthetic analysis of style in sketching. Artif Intell Eng Des Anal Manufac 20:185–199
Burns K (2006) Style in poker. In: Proceedings of the IEEE conference on computational intelligence in games, Reno, NV, May 22–24, pp 257–264
Burns K (2006) Bayesian inference in disputed authorship: a case study of cognitive errors and a new system for decision support. Info Sci 176:1570–1589
Burns K (2005) Pared-down poker: cutting to the core of command and control. Proceedings of the IEEE conference on computational intelligence in games, pp 234–241
Burns K (2004) Heads-up face-off: on style and skill in the game of poker. Papers from the AAAI symposium on style and meaning in language, art, music, and design, FS-4-07. AAAI Press, Menlo Park, CA, pp 15–22
Burns K, Demaree H (2009) A chance to learn: On matching probabilities to optimize utilities. Info Sci 179:1599–1607
Burns K, Bonaceto C (2006) Structure mapping in visual displays for decision support. Paper presented at the 11th international command and control research and technology symposium, San Diego, CA, June 20–22,
Burns K, Dubnov S (2006) Memex music and gambling games: EVE’s take on lucky number 13. In: Proceedings of the AAAI workshop on computational aesthetics, WS-06-04. AAAI Press, Menlo Park, CA, pp 30–36
Camerer C (2003) Behavioral game theory: experiments in strategic interaction. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ
Cancho R, Solé R (2003) Least effort and the origins of scaling in human language. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 100(3):788–791
Connolly T, Arkes H, Hammond K (eds) (2000) Judgment and decision making: An interdisciplinary reader. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
Csikszentmihalyi M (1991) Flow: the psychology of optimal experience. Harper Collins, New York, NY
Davis M (1997) Game theory. Dover, New York, NY
Davis P (2001) Effects-based operations: a grand challenge for the analytical community, MR-1477-USJFCOM/AF. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA
Edwards W (1954) The theory of decision making. Psychol Bull 41:380–417
Edwards W (1961) Behavioral decision theory. Ann Rev Psychol 12:473–498
Edwards W, Newman J (1982) Multi-attribute evaluation. Sage, Beverly Hills, CA
Ferguson C, Ferguson T (2003) On the Borel and von Neumann poker models. Game Theory Applications 9:17–32
Ferguson C, Ferguson T, Gawargy C (2004) Uniform (0,1) two-person poker models. UCLA Department of mathematics. http://www.math.ucla.edu/ \(\sim \)tom/papers/poker2.pdf. Accessed 15 Mar 2006
Finucane M, Alhakami A, Slovic P, Johnson S (2000) The affect heuristic in judgments of risks and benefits. J Behav Decis Mak 13:1–17
Gärdenfors P (2004) Conceptual spaces: the geometry of thought. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA
Gattis M (2001) Spatial schemas and abstract thought. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA
Gentner D (1983) Structure mapping: a theoretical framework for analogy. Cogn Sci 7: 155–170
Gentner D, Markman A (1997) Structure mapping in analogy and similarity. Am Psychol 52(1):45–56
Gigerenzer G, Todd P (1999) Simple heuristics that make us smart. Oxford University Press, New York, NY
Hamilton S, Garber L (1997) Deep Blue’s hardware-software synergy. IEEE Comput 30(1):29–35
Harford T (2006) The poker machine. Financ Times Mag 6 May 2006:16–21
Hellmuth P (2003) Play poker like the pros. Harper Collins, New York, NY
Herrnstein R (1997) The matching law: papers in psychology and economics. In: Rachlin H, Laibson D (eds) Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA
Kahneman D, Tversky A (1979) Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47(2):263–291
Kahneman D, Slovic P, Tversky A (eds) (1982) Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Kendall G, Willdig M (2001) An investigation of an adaptive poker player. In: Proceedings of the Australian joint conference on artificial intelligence, LNAI-2256, Adelaide, SA, Australia, Dec 10–14, pp 189–200
Keys R (2007) Address to the air force association. Air warfare symposium, Lake Buena Vista, FL, 8 Feb 2007
Klein, G. (1998) Sources of power: how people make decisions. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA
Kleinmuntz B (1990) Why we still use our heads instead of formulas: toward an integrative approach. Psychol Bull 107:296–310
Knill D, Richards W (eds) (1996) Perception as Bayesian inference. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Koller D, Pfeffer A (1997) Representations and solutions for game-theoretic problems. Artif Intell 94(1):167–215
Korb K, Nicholson A, Jitnah N (1999) Bayesian poker. In: Proceedings of the conference on uncertainty in artificial intelligence, Stockholm, Sweden, July 30–August 1, pp 343–350
Kuhn H (1950) A simplified two-person poker. In: Kuhn H, Tucker A (eds) Contributions to the theory of games, Vol. 1. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, (pp 97–103)
Kumamoto H, Henley E (1996) Probabilistic risk assessment and management for engineers and scientists. IEEE Press, New York, NY
Lakoff G (1987) Women, fire, and dangerous things: what categories reveal about the mind. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL
Lakoff G, Johnson M (1980) Metaphors we live by. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL
Leedom D (2004) The analytic representation of sensemaking and knowledge management within a military C2 organization, AFRL-HE-WP-TR-2004-0083. United States Air Force Research Laboratory, WPAFB, OH
Loewenstein G, Weber E, Hsee C, Welch N (2001) Risk as feelings. Psychol Bull 127(2): 267–286
Mandeles M, Hone T, Terry S (1996) Managing command and control in the Persian Gulf war. Praeger, Westport, CT
McDonald J (1950) Strategy in poker, business, and war. Norton, New York, NY
McKenna J (2006) Beyond bluffs: master the mysteries of poker. Kensington, New York, NY
McKenna J (2005) Beyond tells: power poker psychology. Kensington, New York, NY
McManus J (2003) Positively fifth street: murderers, cheetahs, and Binion’s world series of poker. Farrar, Straus, & Giroux, New York, NY
Montague R (2006) Why choose this book? How we make decisions. Dutton, New York, NY
Morgan M, Fischhoff B, Bostrom A, Atman C (2002) Risk communication: a mental models approach. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
Nash J (1950) Equilibrium points in N-person games. Proc Natl Acad Sci 36(1):48–49
Payne J, Bettman J, Johnson E (1993) The adaptive decision maker. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
Pearl J (2000) Causality: models, reasoning, and inference. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
Perrow C (1984) Normal accidents: living with high-risk technologies. Basic Books, New York, NY
Pirolli P (2007) Information foraging theory: adaptive interaction with information. Oxford University Press, New York, NY
Post T, Van den Assem M, Baltussen G, Thaler R (2008) Deal or no deal? Decision making under risk in a large-payoff game show. Am Econ Rev, 98(1):38–71
Postrel V (2003) The substance of style. Harper Collins, New York, NY
Richards W (ed) (1988) Natural computation. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA
Samuelson P (2004) Heads, I win, and tails, you lose. In: von Neumann J, Morgenstern O (1944) Theory of games and economic behavior, sixtieth-anniversary edition. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, pp 675–676
Schaeffer J (1996) One jump ahead: challenging human supremacy in checkers. Springer, New York, NY
Schoonmaker A (2000) The psychology of poker. Two Plus Two Publishing, Las Vegas, NV
Shannon C, Weaver W (1949) The mathematical theory of communication. University of Illinois Press, Urbana, IL
Shapiro J (2005) Organizing terror: hierarchy and networks in covert organizations. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American political science association, Washington, DC, 1 Sep 2005
Shi J, Littman M (2000) Abstraction methods for game-theoretic poker. In: Proceedings of the 2nd international conference on computers and games, Hamamatsu, Japan, October 26–28, pp 333–345
Sklansky D (1987) The theory of poker. Two Plus Two Publishing, Las Vegas, NV
Smith E (2006) Complexity, networking, and effects-based approaches to operations. CCRP Publication Series, DoD Command and Control Research Program, Washington, DC
Southey F, Bowling M, Larson B, Piccione C, Burch N, Billings D, Rayner C (2005) Bayes bluff: opponent modeling in poker. In: Proceedings of the conference on uncertainty in artificial intelligence, Edinburgh, Scotland, July 26–29, pp 550–558
Specter M (1996) 10 years later, through fear, Chernobyl still kills in Belarus. New York Times, p 1
Sun-tzu (2002) The art of war (trans: Minford J). Viking Penguin, New York, NY
Tenenbaum J, Griffiths T, Kemp C (2006) Theory-based Bayesian models of inductive learning and reasoning. Trends Cogn Sci 10(7):309–318
Tetlock P (2003) Thinking the unthinkable: sacred values and taboo cognitions. Trends Cogn Sci 7(7):320–324
True D, Leaver D, Fenstermacher E, Gaertner J (2003) Risk characterization of the potential consequences of an armed terrorist ground attack on a U.S. nuclear power plant. EPRI Report for the Nuclear Energy Institute
Tversky A, Kahneman D (1992) Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty. J Risk Uncertainty 5:297–323
von Neumann J, Morgenstern O (1944) Theory of games and economic behavior. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ
Weick K (1995) Sensemaking in organizations. Sage, Beverly Hills, CA
Wolf F, Berniker E (1999) Validating normal accident theory: chemical accidents, fires, and explosions in petroleum refineries. Paper presented at the high consequences system surety conference, Sandia National Laboratory, Albuquerque, NM, 11–14, Nov 1999
Zsambok C, Klein G (1997) Naturalistic decision making. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Mahwah, NJ
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2010 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Burns, K. (2010). Strategic Style in Pared-Down Poker. In: Argamon, S., Burns, K., Dubnov, S. (eds) The Structure of Style. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-12337-5_11
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-12337-5_11
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-12336-8
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-12337-5
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)