Abstract
The Air Force Research Laboratory’s National Operational Environment Model (NOEM) is a strategic analysis/assessment tool that provides insight into the complex state space that depicts today’s modern nation-state environment. A key component of the NOEM is its Populace Behavior Module, an agent-based model that describes activist behavior in terms of populace agents’ perceptions of hardship and government legitimacy. Although based on Epstein’s grievance vs. net risk model [1], enhancements have been made that make the model more practically applicable. We applied the model to an actual scenario, namely service protests in Gauteng Province, South Africa from 2004-2010. When model parameters were fit based on the data, the model successfully duplicated both qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the historical data.
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Thron, C., Salerno, J., Kwiat, A., Dexter, P., Smith, J. (2012). Modeling South African Service Protests Using the National Operational Environment Model. In: Yang, S.J., Greenberg, A.M., Endsley, M. (eds) Social Computing, Behavioral - Cultural Modeling and Prediction. SBP 2012. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 7227. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-29047-3_36
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-29047-3_36
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