Abstract
In this study, seven types of first-order and one-variable grey differential equation model (abbreviated as GM (1, 1) model) were used to predict hourly ozone concentrations in Dali area of Taichung City, Taiwan. The results indicated that the minimum mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and maximum correlation coefficient (R) were 19.00%, 45.27, 6.73, and 0.91, respectively. All statistical values revealed that the prediction performance of GM (1, 1, x(0)), GM (1, 1, a), and GM (1, 1, b) is better than the performance of other GM (1, 1) models. The GM (1, 1) model required a very small sample size, as low as four samples, but the modeling could result in very high prediction accuracy. It is also revealed that GM (1, 1) GM (1, 1) was an efficiently early warning tool to provide ozone information to inhabitants.
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Pai, TY., Lin, SH., Yang, PY., Chang, DH., Kuo, JL. (2013). Predicting Hourly Ozone Concentration Time Series in Dali Area of Taichung City Based on Seven Types of GM (1, 1) Model. In: Pedrycz, W., Chen, SM. (eds) Time Series Analysis, Modeling and Applications. Intelligent Systems Reference Library, vol 47. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-33439-9_17
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-33439-9_17
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