Abstract
In the real world, an incident is often followed by some secondary or derivative incidents which may further trigger some new incidents. The process goes so repeatedly. How to present this kind of chain relationship and formalize cascading effect of these incidents is very important for prevention and control of the complicated incident scenarios like this. This paper preliminarily explores incident chain modeling including the mechanism of incident chain and its construction and presentation. In mechanism, a term meta-force is coined for theoretical research of the incident chain modeling. A general theoretical framework including incident, meta-force and disaster receptor is proposed which can be used for incident chain research. Following the research on construction and presentation of incident chain modeling, the paper further investigates the analysis approach to incident chain based on Bayesian network. As a kind of natural presentation of incident chain, Bayesian network techniques have inherent advantages when used in inference and prediction of a complicated disaster scenario. Concrete applications include risk analysis and decision optimization. The work can be consulted in case of prevention and control of complicated disaster circumstances.
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Zhong, S. et al. (2013). A Preliminary Research on Incident Chain Modeling and Analysis. In: Bian, F., Xie, Y., Cui, X., Zeng, Y. (eds) Geo-Informatics in Resource Management and Sustainable Ecosystem. GRMSE 2013. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 399. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-41908-9_17
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-41908-9_17
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
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